632
FXUS64 KTSA 132346
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
   with potential for locally heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch
   remains in effect until 7 PM this evening for SE OK and west-
   central AR.

 - Patchy fog could develop toward daybreak Monday, especially
   across NE OK and far NW AR.

 - Another round of showers and storms is expected on Monday from
   SE OK into NW AR, in association with an MCV coming up from
   Texas. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall will again be
   possible.

 - A weak front approaching the area will bring chances for
   storms Wednesday and Thursday mainly across NE OK and NW AR.

 - Storm chances drop off and heat goes up by the end of the week
   as ridging is expected to build in aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Satellite and radar obs indicate an area of low pressure aloft
over far NE OK, moving east. This area of low pressure is embedded
within a larger scale trof axis that extends from the Great Lakes
down to W TX. Satellite imagery also indicates that the deep layer
moist plume has shifted east with the trof axis, and lies from SE
OK into west-central AR. CAMs indicate potential for scattered
afternoon storms here, with locally heavy rainfall potential. The
Flood Watch has been trimmed to cover the aforementioned area thru
00Z. At this time, there are no plans to extend the watch, and
will let the evening shift reevaluate. After 00z, the better
chance for storms and heavy rainfall looks to shift just to the
south and east of the forecast area, along with the deep layer
moist axis.

Some clearing is forecast across parts of NE OK and possibly NW AR
toward daybreak Monday. This could result in some areas of patchy
fog.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

CAMs have been consistent today in suggesting that an MCV will
evolve from the TX Hill Country convection and then lift northeast
into our area into Monday. Expect an increase in shower/storm
coverage and potential for locally heavy rainfall, from SE OK into
NW AR. There may also be an uptick in storm organization and
severity. After a lull on Monday night in the wake of this system,
expect widely scattered storm chances on Tuesday in the same areas
along the deep layer moist axis.

A weak front will approach from the north Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing at least low chances for storms across NE OK
and NW AR.

Mid-level ridging is expected to build over the region by the end
of the week, decreasing storm chances and increasing the heat.
Early indications are for mainly hot and dry weather for weekend
activities next weekend. There are still some credible scenarios
laid out in the ensemble clusters to suggest that the ridge may
not stay parked over our area for long and may continue to
retrograde back to the Southwest. Time will tell.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are expected to continue
into the overnight hours over the CWA as the backside of one mid
level low exits to the northeast and a second mid level low
approaches from the southwest. Also overnight, scattered to broken
areas of MVFR conditions look to develop late tonight into Monday
morning with patchy areas of IFR conditions. The greater chance
for fog development is across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas. Conditions should improve mid morning with
ceilings lifting back to scattered/broken mid and high clouds
Monday afternoon.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms ongoing are forecast
to weaken and decrease in coverage through the evening hours.
Before the loss of daytime heating, storms in southeast Oklahoma
will be capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Shower/storm
chances remain overnight mainly south of Interstate 40 with the
next approaching low, though the greater potential is expected
during the Monday over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
as the low moves into the region. Thus, will add Prob30 groups for
Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  72  91 /  10  20  10  20
FSM   73  88  73  91 /  30  40  20  30
MLC   70  86  71  90 /  20  40  20  30
BVO   67  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   68  86  69  87 /  20  40  20  30
BYV   68  86  69  88 /  20  40  10  30
MKO   70  84  70  88 /  20  30  20  30
MIO   68  86  70  89 /  10  20  10  20
F10   69  85  70  89 /  20  30  10  30
HHW   70  83  71  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20