Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271704
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1104 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1017 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Mid cloud deck along the Kansas/Oklahoma border will continue to
drift to the east-southeast late this morning and into the
afternoon, with a general decrease in cloudiness expected areawide
today. Above normal temperatures will occur today, under the
influence of strong low level downslope flow. Current forecast
values look good and will be left unchanged. Expect winds to peak
early to mid afternoon in most spots, with speeds decreasing
toward sunset. Updated products have already been sent, with minor
changes to the sky cover the only update.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 126 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Warm and breezy conditions continue on Saturday with low
temperatures in the 30s to near 40 and highs of 55-60F. Cloud
cover will gradually thicken and lower in advance of a cold front,
which will plow through the area overnight into Sunday morning. A
few rain showers may develop ahead of this feature, mainly for
southeast OK and western AR. High temperatures will only reach the
mid 30s for northeast OK on Sunday, and 40s for southeast OK as
the front will take a bit longer to arrive. Lows will fall to
10-30 (coldest north).

Attention will then turn to a prolonged risk of wintry
precipitation. As the large scale trough responsible for the
initial cold intrusion amplifies, a portion of the upper level
energy will pinch off with a closed low forming over the Desert
Southwest. A strong subtropical jet will round the base of this
trough, phasing with the polar jet over the central Plains. This
will place Oklahoma and Arkansas under the broad right entrance
region of a powerful 150 kt 300 hPa jet Monday-Tuesday. Meanwhile,
as the parent trough becomes detached from the closed low and
ejects eastward, upper level heights will rise with strong isentropic
lift over the residual arctic air, which will be stubborn to
retreat due to a northerly surface pressure gradient. Meanwhile, a
series of 850-700 hPa trough axes will develop and focus
precipitation across the area beginning Monday. Although the
timing and placement of these features remains quite uncertain, we
will outline the key features and details.

Beginning Monday afternoon, the first weak feature will likely
move through the area. Most model guidance agrees on the existence
of this feature, but disagree on the exact location and intensity.
Warm and moist southwesterly flow in the 700-850 hPa layer will
already be increasing the temperature such that the precipitation
type is uncertain. But as it stands now any precipitation in
southeast OK would favor a mixture of freezing rain and sleet,
while a mixture of sleet and snow would be more likely in
northeast OK and northwest AR. I will reiterate again, that these
details will likely change, but at least for now this system does
not appear likely to produce much precipitation, regardless of
the variety of precipitation.

Additional warm advection and a second stronger mid level wave
result in another wintry mess on Tuesday. Some model guidance,
such as the GFS show a weak and suppressed system, with no real
risk of additional wintry precipitation for northeast OK, with
only a marginal risk for some freezing rain for southeast OK and
northwest AR. The CMC paints a swatch of heavy freezing rain for
SE OK and NW AR with significant sleet for much of NE OK. The
ECMWF also shows freezing rain for SE OK, with a swath of sleet
in the middle of the state, but more snow for NE OK. There is
even more variety of solution types within the ensemble systems
for each of these models. It is probably sufficient to say that
wintry precipitation of some type is favored for much of the area
Tuesday, but significant details remain to be worked out in the
coming days. Additionally, the longer warm advection continues,
the more likely a transition to ice or even rain.

At some point Wednesday or Thursday the cut off low over the
Desert Southwest will begin to be swept up by the westerlies and
be carried through the area. Depending on the track this may
result in one final round of wintry precipitation but there is no
point in getting too concerned with the finer details just yet.
So to summarize, Monday through Thursday will likely feature a few
rounds of precipitation, with multiple precipitation types
possible. The most likely day for impactful weather appears to be
Tuesday. Tranquil weather resumes towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Gusty west-southwesterly winds will persist at all sites except
FSM through mid to late afternoon. Ongoing VFR conditions will
continue for much of the period, with MVFR ceilings developing
after daybreak tomorrow. LLWS will develop at all terminals early
tomorrow morning in response to a low level jet. Strong and gusty
southerly winds can be expected mid to late morning tomorrow, with
gusts approaching 30kts. FSM may stay with the climatological east
river valley influenced wind through 18Z given the likelihood of
low clouds there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  38  60  25 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  37  55  41 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   59  40  58  32 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   56  33  60  20 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   54  37  54  31 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   52  37  54  31 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   57  40  57  30 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   53  36  57  25 /   0   0   0  30
F10   57  40  58  29 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   59  40  57  42 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22


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