Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 251744 RRA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1045 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Southwesterly flow aloft will keep conditions
generally dry with seasonable temperatures through the week.
Breezy to locally windy conditions can be expected each
afternoon.&&

.UPDATE...Dry westerly winds aloft has started turning more
southwest through the morning. This has allowed cirrus over
southern California to push northeast into the region. This trend
will continue with more high clouds streaming in from the southwest
through the afternoon, however models seem to be overdoing the
thickness and coverage of the the incoming cirrus deck compared to
current satellite trends. Decreased cloud coverage from previous
forecast to reflect this trend. Otherwise, kept the slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms in Esmeralda and Nye county for late
this afternoon. While some of the hi-res models do not show this
development, a weak wave thats helping turn the flow southwest
should be enough to trigger some high based convection. Dont
anticipate any significant impacts from these storms as it is very
dry.

Wind trends for the afternoon look to be on track, with increasing
breezy south winds expected. Didnt make changes to the winds
forecast for today. A few locations may be close to Red Flag Warning
criteria today, but it will be isolated and therefore didnt make any
changes to fire weather headlines for today`s winds. Wednesday and
Thursday still look to be the better days with stronger, more
widespread winds with dry conditions.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...203 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...Through Monday.

Southwesterly flow aloft will dominate the weather pattern for our
region through the week as a deep closed low sits off the coastal
waters of the PacNW and a stout ridge builds over northern
Mexico. This will place the greater Mojave desert region under a
dry and breezy pattern, with the strongest winds expected
Wednesday and Thursday as pressure gradients maximize between the
competing pressure systems. Despite the gusty winds, peak wind
gusts should stay largely below wind advisory thresholds.

Closed low over the PacNW will begin to fill and lift into Western
Canada over the weekend, which will allow pressure gradients to
relax a bit, and gusty conditions to trend downward. However,
light afternoon breezes can still be expected. Still no clear
indication of the atmospheric pattern shifting to into monsoon
mode, with the GFS ensembles attempting to build the monsoon high
into Arizona in early July, but the EC ensembles insisting on
persistent western US troughing to start the month. Official CPC
outlook favors the drier EC solution which makes sense given the
persistent troughing we`ve observed most of the Spring and early
summer thus far.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasingly dry and gusty conditions are expected
by midweek with critical fire weather still anticipated across
much of Southern Nevada Wednesday and Thursday. Wind gusts to 40
mph along along with low relative humidity values can be expected
across the lower elevations with poor overnight recoveries expected.
In the higher elevations of the Spring and Sheep range, fuels are
still curing and overnight humidity recoveries will be slightly
better than across the low elevations. Dry and gusty conditions are
also anticipated across much of Inyo county, though fuels are more
marginal. Lighter winds are expected over the weekend but conditions
will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southerly winds around 10kts will
continue through the night then increase late this morning, with
gusts 20-25kts expected through the afternoon. It will be dry with
VFR clouds above 15kft at times.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds generally favoring a southerly direction under
15kts tonight increasing and becoming gusty late morning and
continuing through the afternoon. Dry conditions across much of the
region, though a stray thunderstorm is possible along the Sierra
crest or White Mountains ridge line in the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolf
DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Salmen

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