Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 16TH...

This is the seventh flood potential outlook of the 2020 season.
Flood outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to
summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and water
equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on them,
along with the expected conditions during the next two weeks.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

Temperatures averaged well above normal during March. This
essentially melted nearly the entire snow pack across the region,
and resulted in very little snow to replace it. There is some
patchy snow in portions of the Black River basin, but this covers
a very small portion of the basin, less than 25% areal coverage.
This is well below normal for the Black River basin, which
typically has some snow pack in place in early April. Elsewhere,
there is no snow on the ground.

Flows are near normal in all basins, but it`s worth noting that
flows are climatologically high this time of year with levels not
too far below action stage.

The following is a summary of the conditions by basin as of
Thursday morning, April 2nd:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Near normal.
.CREEK ICE...........None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Near normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Near normal.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........None, except up to 6 inches, mainly isolated
and in the woods on the Tug Hill and Adirondacks.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None, except up to 2 inches, mainly isolated
and in the woods on the Tug Hill and Adirondacks.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Near normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

It will be a generally dry pattern for the next week. Scattered
showers are possible at times, but these will not result in
significant amounts of precipitation. Total rainfall amounts for
the next week only average a quarter to half inch through Thursday
morning of next week. Temperatures will be near normal through
the end of this week, but warmer weather will move in for the
weekend with above normal temperatures lasting well into next
week.

Uncertainty increases with time, but model guidance suggests an
overall low risk for heavy rainfall heading into mid-April. This
is also supported by HEFS ensembles which show a low risk of
around 10 percent of forecast points reaching action stage through
April 12th. There is always a small risk that a significant
system will develop in the longer range.

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 Day Outlook
suggests that temperatures and precipitation are likely to average
above normal.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

There is very little snowpack in place, and what is there is
likely to harmlessly melt over the next couple days when the
region will be in a generally dry pattern. After this, there will
be no snow to melt, so temperatures will not be a factor for the
rest of the outlook period. With a generally dry pattern with
periodic showers, the next 7 days will be uneventful from a
hydrological perspective.

Looking further ahead, there remains no clear indication of a
significant storm system. Furthermore, there will be no snow pack
in place, and flows are likely to be below normal following a
mainly dry week. Although a significant system cannot completely
be ruled out in the longer range, the risk for flooding is below
normal through April 16th.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific locations along rivers across Western New York can be
found on the internet at www.weather.gov/buf. Since conditions can
change, please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and
statements for additional information.

This is expected to be the last Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for
the 2020 season. If snow pack re-established then the next
Winter/Spring Outlook will be issued on April 16th. Again, we
would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel



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