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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
000
FGUS73 KJKL 130027
ESFJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-
237-191200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
826 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2020
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 05/19/2020 - 08/17/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 14 20 7 9 <5 <5
Pineville 1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 : 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
Williamsburg 21.0 27.5 32.0 : 19 22 <5 7 <5 <5
Baxter 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 10 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 10 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Ravenna 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 24 23 9 10 5 6
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville 35.0 42.0 50.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Prestonsburg 40.0 43.0 46.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Paintsville 35.0 38.0 42.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 8 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
Jackson 29.0 31.0 40.0 : 7 6 6 <5 <5 <5
:Cumberland River
Cumberland 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Red River
Clay City 17.0 19.0 23.0 : 20 14 12 9 <5 <5
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 27.0 32.0 38.0 : 16 15 9 8 <5 <5
Oneida 29.0 34.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/19/2020 - 08/17/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 3.5 3.9 7.6 13.5 20.8 29.4 36.1
Pineville 978.1 978.4 980.1 983.0 990.6 1001.4 1006.3
Williamsburg 6.1 6.9 9.2 13.3 19.2 23.6 25.6
Baxter 2.1 2.3 2.9 5.2 9.5 16.1 17.4
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 11.6 12.0 13.9 16.5 18.6 19.9 22.5
Ravenna 12.8 13.2 15.4 18.0 20.7 23.5 31.7
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville 8.0 8.4 9.8 13.3 19.5 28.7 33.9
Prestonsburg 4.0 5.2 6.4 10.9 17.5 27.0 32.7
Paintsville 5.2 6.3 7.5 12.1 16.9 27.6 34.6
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 4.7 5.0 5.6 6.6 10.1 15.2 29.2
Jackson 3.0 3.3 4.6 7.8 15.0 21.5 34.7
:Cumberland River
Cumberland 3.8 4.0 4.4 5.4 7.8 9.5 10.1
:Red River
Clay City 3.6 4.5 6.2 9.4 15.6 19.4 20.9
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City 7.2 7.7 8.6 9.2 11.1 13.6 14.7
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 6.1 6.8 9.9 14.0 20.0 31.6 33.4
Oneida 8.9 9.8 11.5 14.2 19.2 25.7 27.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/19/2020 - 08/17/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Pineville 976.7 976.6 976.6 976.5 976.4 976.3 976.3
Williamsburg 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
Baxter 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.7
Ravenna 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.8
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Pikeville 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9
Prestonsburg 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Paintsville 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Jackson 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
:Cumberland River
Cumberland 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
:Red River
Clay City 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9
Oneida 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/jkl for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued May 19.
$$
- National Weather Service
- Central Region Headquarters Regional Headquarters
- 7220 NW 101st Terrace
- Kansas City, MO 64153
- Page Author: CRH Webmaster
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- Page last modified: Mar 10th, 2020 21:02 UTC