Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY York NY
1120 AM EDT Thu April 30 2020

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

This is the last Spring Flood Potential Outlook in a series of
routine Winter Flood Potential statements intended to provide
insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding)
over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Southern
Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-Meteorological
factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water
equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions.
This outlook does not address the severity of any future river
flooding.

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from
May 5th to May 9th suggests below normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. The 8 to 14
day outlook valid from May 7th to May 13th suggests below normal
temperatures and normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service
Area.

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.
It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river
flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding
potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures across the Hydrologic
Service Area during the last 60 days ending on April 30th across
northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson River Valley, NYC and Long Island
were below normal and across southern Connecticut precipitation
departures were normal to above normal.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and
streams are running normal to above normal. Real-Time Water data can
be found by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture  Normal to above normal. Soil moisture and drought
related data and charts can be seen at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and
www.drought.gov.

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system is normal. Reservoir levels across the combined
13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs are above normal.

For complete weather information, visit our web site at:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY

You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY

This will be the last spring flood outlook for the season.

$$


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