Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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FGUS71 KPBZ 231146

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
746 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...The Flood Potential will be Above Normal into early/middle of
May for the Ohio River Basin...

An above normal flood potential means widespread flooding could
occur with water levels possibly having significant impacts.

For the long-range river outlooks and probability of exceeding
flood stage or the chances of flooding relative to normal at
specific forecast points during the next 90 days, refer to
www.weather.gov/ohrfc and click on the 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK on the
left hand side of the page. Click on FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL to view
the risk of flooding with respect to normal.

Winter/Spring Flood Outlooks are issued weekly to summarize basin
hydrometeorological conditions and to assess the potential for
winter/spring flooding. The outlooks are based on current and
forecast conditions during the outlook period.

In addition, 30/60/90 Day Water Resource Outlooks are issued

Factors considered in assessing flood potential are:
(1)Antecedent Conditions (2)Past precipitation (3)Recent
streamflows and reservoir levels (4) soil moisture (5) water
content of the snow pack (6) ice conditions on the rivers and
(7)future precipitation.

Antecedent Conditions/Precipitation

Since January 1, 2020, precipitation is well above normal with 110
to 200 percent of normal.

...Soil Moisture...

Soils are wet to nearly saturated. Here is the surplus of topsoil
moisture by state.

Western Pennsylvania...15%
West Virginia..........10%


River flows are above normal across watersheds in West Virginia
and Western Pennsylvania. Normal flows exist in Ohio.

>75% is wet
<25% is dry

Ohio...................50% normal
Western Pennsylvania...80% above normal
West Virginia..........75% above normal

...Ohio river flows...(CURRENT % OF NORMAL)
Pittsburgh - 170%
Huntington - 150%
Cincinnati - 150%
Louisville - 150%
Smithland  - 140%

...Snow Water Equivalents...

There is no snow across the Ohio Valley.

...Ice Cover...

There is no ice across the Ohio Valley.

...Future Rainfall and Late Spring Flood Outlook Summary...

During late April into the middle of May, the weather pattern will
become active due to a southwesterly Jet in combination with a
stubborn southeastern Subtropical High. This Quasi-stationary
weather pattern is typically a very wet setup for the Ohio Valley,
producing widespread flooding, some of which could be significant.

Adding to the flood risk, antecedent conditions noted above, are
conducive to flooding. Soils are wet and flows are running high
as well across most watersheds in the Ohio River Basin.

...State by State Flood Risk and Impacts into Early/Middle of

Ohio...................above normal risk with minor to moderate
West Virginia..........above normal risk with minor to moderate
Western Pennsylvania...above normal risk with minor to moderate

...Ohio River Flow Forecasts... (Next Two to Three Weeks % of

Pittsburgh - 165%
Huntington - 155%
Cincinnati - 165%
Louisville - 175%
Smithland  - 195%


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