Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1233 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 7

This is the seventh in a series of annual Flood Potential
Statements intended to provide insight into the likelihood of
river flooding (not flash flooding) across the middle/lower
Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins.
These statements will provide information on flood threat
conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover
and its water equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow,
future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid between April 2 and 16, 2020. This will be
the last outlook issued this season.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is about normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None. There is currently no river flooding
occurring within our service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Slightly below normal to normal. Between
3.0 and 4.0 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30
days across the entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be
found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Normal. No snow is being reported across the HSA.
Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be found
at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Normal. No river ice is being observed on area
streams and rivers.

STREAMFLOW - Normal. Real time water data is available from the
United States Geological Survey (USGS) by visiting
http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Below normal conditions across our southern
service area, above normal conditions across southeast
Pennsylvania, and normal elsewhere. Soil moisture monitoring
charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s
Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running normal to above normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - An ocean storm will continue to churn
offshore of the mid-Atlantic through Friday. That storm will
finally move out to sea by Saturday as high pressure builds in for
the weekend. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night or
early Monday, with weak high pressure then building in for Monday.
One or two frontal systems then may affect the region heading
into the midweek period. The overall 8 to 14 day outlook calls
for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall flood potential is about normal the next two weeks.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

This will be the last outlook issued this season. With snow and
river ice no longer a factor, future flooding will be driven by
heavy rainfall. As we move into the warm season, please refer to
our Hazardous Weather Outlooks, Flood Watches, and Warnings to
obtain hydrologic information.

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 16, 2020:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...Normal
CURRENT FLOODING...None
RECENT PRECIPITATION...Slightly below normal to normal
SNOW COVER...Normal
RIVER ICE...Normal
STREAMFLOW...Normal
SOIL MOISTURE...Variable...Below normal to above normal
GROUND WATER...Variable...Below normal to above normal
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...Normal to above normal

$$

Kruzdlo



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