Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
National Weather Service San Juan PR
432 AM AST Mon Apr 6 2020

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands...

...The flood risk is near normal for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands...

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOWS AND RESERVOIRS...The 28-day streamflow measured by the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging network shows most locations
across Puerto Rico running above the 75 percentile, which is above
the normal range. There are no streamflow data available for the
U.S. Virgin Islands. USGS gaging sites indicate as well major
reservoirs in optimum conditions.

RAINFALL...The 30- and 60-day rainfall totals indicate a surplus
across north-central and northeast Puerto Rico as well as over
the southwestern tip of the island. Elsewhere, near normal
rainfall has been observed, including over the U.S. Virgin
Islands. The 30-day rainfall surplus across northeast Puerto Rico
is ranging between 8 to 10 inches.

SOIL MOISTURE...Based on data retrieved from the Puerto Rico
Agricultural Water Management (PRAGWATER), there is a lack in
soil moisture across south-central and southeast Puerto Rico,
which is consistent with the rainfall pattern observed.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

The latest seasonal outlook issued by the Caribbean Regional Climate
Outlook has a forecast of near to slightly below normal rainfall
through summer 2020, with chances increasing by the fall.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...

Considering the expected rainfall and the observed conditions, the
flood risk is near normal across the local islands.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NWS WFO SAN JUAN, HYDROLOGY AND RIVER CONDITIONS:
https://www.weather.gov/sju/idss_hydro

NWS WFO SAN JUAN, CLIMATE AND DROUGHT:
https://www.weather.gov/sju/dss_climo

PUERTO RICO AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT: https://pragwater.com

USGS CARIBBEAN-FLORIDA WATER SCIENCE CENTER: http://pr.water.usgs

QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about the Spring Flood
Outlook, please contact

NWS San Juan 787-253-4586

$$



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