Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS65 KSTR 041342
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
June 4 2021

        WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
            SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 MAY PRECIP     OCT-MAY PREC
----------------------   ----------     ------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             120            80
ANIMAS                        95            65

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         MAY FLOW       OCT-MAY FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE                55             45

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF MAY 31, 2021:
Figures are in 1000 Acre Feet

                           C U R R E N T   Y R              L A S T   Y R
                           Usable     EOM Usable % of       EOM Usable   % of
                           Capacity   Contents   Capacity   Contents     Capacity
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        76.6|     61|      123.7|        99|
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1696.0|      1104.9|     65|     1366.7|        81|
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   FLORIDA - LEMON RESER|       39.8|        18.6|     47|       28.9|        73|
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  T O T A L S           |     1861.2|      1200.1|     64|     1519.3|        82|




**********************************************************************************

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS
San Juan River
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    128    60    140    133    122    115    215
  Pagosa Springs           Jun-Jul     40    42     52     45     34     27     96
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    205    54    230    215    193    183    380
  Carracas, nr             Jun-Jul     69    44     95     80     57     47    158
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     34    63     38     36     32     30     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Jun-Jul   11.7    51   15.5   13.8    9.5    8.0     23
Little Navajo River
  Oso Div Dam,bl,chromo,n  Apr-Jul    3.3    43    3.5    3.4    3.2    3.1    7.6
  Oso Div Dam,bl,chromo,n  Jun-Jul   0.50    25   0.70   0.61   0.40   0.30    2.0
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     39    60     44     41     36     34     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Jun-Jul   14.6    49     20     17   11.2   10.0     30
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul     94    45    107    100     88     84    210
  Arboles, nr              Jun-Jul     27    36     40     33   21.0   17.0     74
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Reservoir, Ba  Apr-Jul    110    57    127    117    104     95    194
  Vallecito Reservoir, Ba  Jun-Jul     46    46     63     53     40     31     99
San Juan River
  Navajo Reservoir, Archu  Apr-Jul    335    46    380    355    315    300    735
  Navajo Reservoir, Archu  Jun-Jul     83    29    130    104     64     50    290
Florida River
  Lemon Reservoir, Durang  Apr-Jul     25    45     29     27     23     22     55
  Lemon Reservoir, Durang  Jun-Jul    8.8    33   13.0   11.0    7.2    5.5     27
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    176    42    210    190    160    147    415
  Durango                  Jun-Jul     86    39    121    100     70     57    220
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    450    41    535    495    420    390   1100
  Farmington               Jun-Jul    153    33    235    195    120     90    470
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul    8.0    35    9.3    8.5    7.5    7.0     23
  Hesperus                 Jun-Jul    2.7    32    4.0    3.2   2.20   1.70    8.5
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul     420    38    505    460    395    360   1100
  Bluff, nr                Jun-Jul     134    30    220    175    107     75    450
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul    8.6    28    9.9    8.8    8.0    7.9     31
  Mancos, nr               Jun-Jul   1.63    16    3.0    1.9   1.04   1.00   10.4

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/NIELSON


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