Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 230039
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for South Quay Sandhills NAP - Unit 15...DCR - DNH
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
839 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2100 EDT on September 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains over the area tonight and Wednesday.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........0      23     29     38     40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
Temp............56     53     51     50     49
RH..............77     86     89     93     93
20 ft wind......W 3    W 2    W 2    W 2    W 2
20 ft wind gust.5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..W 5    SW 5   W 5    W 5    W 3
LVORI...........3      3      4      6      7
ADI.............2      2      2      2      2
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      1      1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (25100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................5 increasing to 27.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  36  30  28  19  17  15  13  13  13  13  13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............48  48  52  58  65  69  72  75  76  76  78  76
RH..............96  96  89  77  63  57  49  45  42  42  40  43
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.    5   5   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
LVORI...........7   6   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............2   4   5   7   15  25  26  27  28  29  29  28
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   5   10  17  20  22  24  25  25  24
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................18 decreasing to 2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........16           17           24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............75           62           58
RH..............46           78           86
20 FT wind......W 5G6        SW 2         SW 2
Mix hgt (ft)....2300         300          300
Transport wind..W 7          SW 3         SW 3
LVORI...........2            4            6
ADI.............18           1            2
Haines index....4            4            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14           1            1
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    early in the afternoon, then becoming light
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (28000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................3 increasing to 11 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 26 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 19 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........35           51           68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............55           67           76
RH..............96           68           52
20 FT wind......SW 2         SW 3G4       SW 5G6
Mix hgt (ft)....300          1400         3500
Transport wind..SW 2         SW 6         SW 9
LVORI...........8            3            2
ADI.............1            11           24
Haines index....4            4            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1            8            28
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...ALBRIGHT
Requested by...Rebecca Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2012891.0/AKQ
.DELDT 09/22/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL rebecca.wilson@dcr.virginia.gov



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