Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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Spot Forecast for Williams Fork (Keyser Ridge)...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
350 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Drier air will spread back across the area
Wednesday. No precipitation is expected, and humidities will be
similar or just a bit lower. Westerly breezes should remain
fairly light with only light westerly flow aloft as a ridge of
high pressure builds across the area.

The dry weather will remain in the forecast through the end of
the week. Critical fire conditions may develop by Friday as
westerly winds strengthen and become gusty with speeds up to 30-35
mph possible. Humidity levels will also be dropping to near 15%.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 1700, then partly
                    cloudy(30-35%).
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........19-20%.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley 3-7 mph until 1100, then
                    northwest 5-11 mph with gusts to around 16 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900. 9500 ft AGL after
                    1300.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8-10 mph until 0700. Northwest 9-19
                    mph after 0900.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then good until 1200, then
                    very good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  19  10  1   1   2   2   10  18  26  29  31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............41  42  43  45  49  52  55  57  58  59  59  59
RH..............65  62  62  60  54  46  38  31  28  25  23  22
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   7   7    8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   8   12  12  12  16  16  16  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.7 1.8 3.7 5.7 7.6 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 8.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  10  9   11  15  18  19  18  17  18  20  19
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4   4   3   13  37  74  107 116 110 122 142 117
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   P   G   VG  VG  VG  VG  VG  VG

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........41%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10-16 mph until 2000, then west
                    6-7 mph until 2200, then downslope/downvalley
                    4-8 mph.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after
                    2100.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14-19 mph until 1900. South 8-11 mph
                    after 0200.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 1900. Poor after 2100.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........34  32  31  29  21  20  7   6   4   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............56  53  50  48  47  46  46  46  45  45  44  43
RH..............23  27  31  34  35  37  37  38  41  41  41  41
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..12  7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.    12  12  8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...7.8 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.19  15  13  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..110 18  11  4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SmokeDispersion.VG  P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........21%.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6-7 mph until 0800. West 7-13 mph
                    with gusts to around 16 mph after 1100.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 7400 ft AGL after
                    1100.
Transport winds.....Downslope/downvalley 3-7 mph until 0900, then
                    becoming southwest 8-12 mph until 0900, then
                    west 9-19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then fair until 1200, then
                    good until 1500, then very good until 1600,
                    then good.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   1   2   3   3   2   2   2   4   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............43  46  48  51  54  56  58  60  62  63  63  62
RH..............41  38  37  34  31  29  27  24  22  21  21  21
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   6   7   10  10  10  10  11  11
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   8   12  12  12  16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 3.1 4.8 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.6 7.2 5.8
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   9   10  10  12  13  16  16  17  17  18  19
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3   5   6   8   24  45  72  82  93  104 94  81
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   P   F   G   G   G   VG  G   G

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Southwest winds 5-13 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. West
winds 7-11 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds
5-13 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 50s.

.OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 30 THROUGH TUESDAY OCTOBER 06...

$$
Forecaster...Barjenbruch
Requested by...Ed LeBlanc
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2012785.4/BOU
.DELDT 09/22/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL edward.leblanc@usda.gov


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