Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Versions:
1
2
772
FNUS71 KCTP 220923
FWSCTP
Spot Forecast for SGL 044 RX burn...Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
523 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions to start off this morning with RHs ranging in the
50-60% range during the morning hours, with RHs dipping into the
45-50% range during the early afternoon hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to stay south of the area until the
early afternoon hours, where widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected to continue for the rest of the day with
thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely during the late
afternoon and evening hours.
Showers are expected to taper off early Tuesday morning with a
brief period of drier conditions. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms return during the afternoon and evening hours on
Tuesday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....Around 82.
Min Humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 10 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................25 to 37.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)........... 83 81 82 85 84 85 87 86 86
Weather Cov....... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather Type...... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm Cov.......... CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp.............. 70 73 76 78 80 80 81 80 77
RH................ 61 62 62 56 52 49 46 45 56
20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE S S S S S S
20 FT Wind Spd.... 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
20 FT Wind Gust... 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 8
Mix Hgt (kft)..... 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.3 5.3 5.5 4.8 4.5 2.3
Transp Wind Dir... S S S S S S S SE S
Transp Wind Spd... 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 10
LVORI............. 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
ADI............... 25 25 25 37 37 37 35 35 35
Haines Index...... 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through
the night. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy
fog late in the evening.
Min Temperature.....Around 63.
Max Humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 10 mph decreasing to around 6
mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
southwest 5 to 6 mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................3 to 7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)........... 91 93 95 96 96 96 89 85 81 78 76 74
Weather Cov....... LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH PTY
Weather Type...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RNF RNF RNF FOG
Tstm Cov.......... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Temp.............. 74 71 70 68 66 66 64 65 64 64 64 64
RH................ 71 81 78 84 90 90 97 93 97 93 93 93
20 FT Wind Dir.... SE S SE SE SE E SE SE S S SW SW
20 FT Wind Spd.... 6 6 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
20 FT Wind Gust... 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 5 5
Mix Hgt (kft)..... 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp Wind Dir... S SE SE SE SE E SE S S S SW SW
Transp Wind Spd... 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 6
LVORI............. 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 6 6
ADI............... 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Haines Index...... 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog early
in the morning. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....Around 80.
Min Humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 to 37.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)........... 72 71 70 68 67 65 65 64 63 62 61 60
Weather Cov....... PTY PTY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type...... FOG FOG RW RW RW RW
Tstm Cov.......... CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp.............. 63 64 65 68 69 72 74 76 77 78 79 79
RH................ 97 97 97 87 84 76 71 64 62 60 58 58
20 FT Wind Dir.... W W W W W W W W W W W SW
20 FT Wind Spd.... 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3
20 FT Wind Gust... 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7
Mix Hgt (kft)..... 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.5 3.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7
Transp Wind Dir... W W W NW NW NW W W W W W W
Transp Wind Spd... 6 7 8 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9
LVORI............. 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 1
ADI............... 6 6 6 14 14 14 36 36 36 37 37 37
Haines Index...... 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
$$
Forecaster...Beaty
Requested by...Travis Weinzierl
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2418639.0/CTP
.DELDT 07/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL trweinzier@pa.gov