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FNUS74 KEPZ 180121
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
721 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions will remain through the evening.
Winds will slowly decrease during the overnight, becoming light and terrain/diurnal
driven in direction. Overnight recoveries of 35 to 45 percent. For Tuesday, breezy
winds of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 possible. Min RH values
will be 10 to 15 percent with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Deep
mixing will promote Very Good smoke ventilation rates. Elevated fire weather
conditions expected on Wednesday.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Upper 40s to low 50s.
Max humidity........35 to 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph, becoming light during the overnight
timeframe.
Mixing height.......Heights will quickly decrease to 100 ft AGL
after sunset.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 22 mph decreasing to around 9 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (165800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........1      2      2      5      1      1
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............73     63     59     56     53     50
RH..............14     19     22     26     32     40
20 ft wind......SW 18  W 12   W 12   W 7    W 3    W 3
20 ft wind gust.40     28     28     16     9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....6900   6900   100    100    100    100
Transport wind..SW 22  SW 22  W 13   W 13   W 9    W 9
Haines index....6      5      4      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..166    166    2      2      1      1
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Upper 70s to low 80s.
Min humidity........10 to 15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 30 mph with
                    gusts to around 25 to 30 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (32300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (124100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (146600
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      2      1      11     11     20
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............51     60     68     74     78     80
RH..............37     29     21     17     15     13
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 3   SW 8   SW 10  SW 12  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.10     10     18     22     22     27
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   2200   7300   7300   9200   9200
Transport wind..SW 12  SW 12  W 20   W 20   W 18   W 18
Haines index....3      3      3      4      5      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32     32     124    124    147    147
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Upper 40s to low 50s.
Max humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph in the evening and overnight becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (124900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........16        4         6         4
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............76        64        58        54
RH..............13        20        26        31
20 FT wind......SW 12G25  W 10G22   W 5G13    W 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....8300      8300      100       100
Transport wind..SW 16     SW 16     W 11      W 7
Haines index....6         5         4         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..125       125       1         1
Ventrate Cat....VYGD      VYGD      POOR      POOR

.JUNETEENTH...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 18 mph
                    with gusts to around 38 mph.
Mixing height.......12700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph increasing to 21 to 24 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (37500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (232400 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........3            4            7
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............52           70           81
RH..............35           21           13
20 FT wind......S 2G5        S 7G20       S 15G35
Mix hgt (ft)....3100         11100        12700
Transport wind..S 10         S 21         S 24
Haines index....4            5            6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38           232          270
Ventrate Cat....POOR         EXNT         EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds around 18 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs around 80. South winds around 17 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416319.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov