Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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Spot Forecast for Bear...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
523 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 MDT on July 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions are LOW for tonight and tomorrow. Scattered showers
and embedded storms possible through the evening and early overnight.
Overnight recoveries of 75 to 85 percent with temperatures in the mid to upper
50s. Winds will be light and variable/terrain driven through the evening and
overnight. Quiet weather to start Monday with partly sunny/cloudy skies. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. Wetting rains,
frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic outflow winds will be the primary threats.
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80 on Monday with Min RH values
between 35 to 40 percent.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-75 percent) through the evening
and overnight hours, becoming partly cloudy around
sunrise. Rain showers will continue through the
evening and into the overnight, with isolated storms
possible
Chance of pcpn......50-70 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 53 to 58 degrees.
Max humidity........80 to 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable (VRB) winds at 3-6 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds possible in and around vicinity shower/storms.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........61 61 55 45 40
Weather cov.....NUMRUS NUMRUS ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 20 20 20
LAL.............5 5 3 3 3
Temp............63 61 60 58 57
RH..............72 75 75 80 80
20 ft wind......E 3 E 3 E 2 SE 2 SE 2
20 ft wind gust.6 6 5 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....900 900 900 800 800
Transport wind..SE 5 SE 5 SE 6 E 6 E 6
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 6 6 6 6
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (35-55 percent), becoming cloudy
during the afternoon hours. Scattered rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
morning, then numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 to 70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 5 until
1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 6 mph in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph shifting to the north
around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (78300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........39 39 43 50 50 62
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE ISOLTD NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 50 60 60 50
LAL.............1 1 4 5 5 5
Temp............57 59 68 74 77 75
RH..............77 80 61 46 37 38
20 ft wind......SE 2 SE 2 NE 3 N 6 N 6 NE 6
20 ft wind gust.5 5 8 9 9 12
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 2300 7200 7200 8100 8100
Transport wind..E 6 E 6 NE 9 NE 9 N 10 N 10
Haines index....2 2 2 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14 14 70 70 78 78
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........66 55 44 33
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).40 30 20 20
LAL.............4 3 3 1
Temp............72 64 61 59
RH..............44 63 67 72
20 FT wind......SE 5G9 SE 5G9 SE 5G9 SE 2G5
Mix hgt (ft)....3200 3200 900 900
Transport wind..E 8 E 8 SE 8 S 7
Haines index....2 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 19 6 6
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 6 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the north around
9 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (69800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........27 29 38
Weather cov.....NONE NONE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 70
LAL.............1 1 5
Temp............58 68 77
RH..............69 59 39
20 FT wind......SE 2G5 SW 3G8 W 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 7900 7500
Transport wind..W 6 N 9 N 9
Haines index....2 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12 70 64
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs
in the lower 80s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s.
Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...NMSDC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418620.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov