Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 300256
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for NORTH SPRINGS...BIA-MESCALERO
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
856 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 MDT on September 29.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Light and variable winds will trend towards downslope westerlies
before midnight. Otherwise, high pressure will bring warm above
normal temperatures and dry weather through the remainder of the
week, with wind speeds mostly less than 15 mph. Minimum relative
humidity will be around 15 to 25 percent through the period.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 7 to 12 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......0-100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      4      3      1
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     51     50     50     48
RH..............36     39     39     37     39
20 ft wind......SW 3   W 8    W 12   W 12   W 12
20 ft wind gust.5      10     14     16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....100    BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 5    W 8    W 12   W 12   W 12
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0      0      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming east 5 to
                    8 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-200 ft AGL increasing to 3200 ft AGL late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 7000-8400 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon decreasing to 4400
                    ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 8 mph shifting to the east around 6
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49600 knot-ft) increasing to fair (53000
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........0      0      1      1      1      1
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............48     54     72     79     81     81
RH..............37     28     15     12     12     13
20 ft wind......W 10   W 6    NW 3   N 5    NE 7   NE 8
20 ft wind gust.13     7      6      6      10     11
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 200    3200   7000   8400   4400
Transport wind..W 12   W 8    W 7    N 9    N 7    N 6
Haines index....4      4      4      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0      0      18     50     50     28
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming west around 5 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......0-100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........6         4         3         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............74        58        53        53
RH..............17        29        32        29
20 FT wind......E 7G10    S 5G7     W 3G6     W 3G6
Mix hgt (ft)....100       BLW100    BLW100    BLW100
Transport wind..E 6       SW 6      SW 6      W 6
Haines index....3         3         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1         0         0         0
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds
around 7 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds
around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds
around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...HARDIMAN
Requested by...ALDON CORIZ
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2013093.1/EPZ
.DELDT 09/29/20
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov


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