Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FNUS72 KILM 231233
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
833 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on July 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Seasonable temperatures accompany daily afternoon storms as the
Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly
stationary.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the morning,
then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Max mixing hgt......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (49179 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............60.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69 90 84 78 72 66 64 62
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............85 87 87 88 88 88 87 87
RH..............79 74 71 69 70 70 73 73
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.3 3.5 2.9 2.3
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 13 13 13 12 14 15 15
Stability.......A A C C C C C C
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1
ADI.............46 60 46 47 39 48 47 41
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.36 47 49 49 38 49 43 35
Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR FR PR FR FR PR
Sfc pres (in)...004 005 005 005 004 004 004 003
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the late evening and overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 17 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (5800 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........8.
Min ADI.............6.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60 59 58 55 52 49 54 58 62 60 58 56
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............85 83 82 80 79 78 78 77 77 77 76 76
RH..............78 83 87 91 93 96 97 98 98 98 99 99
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
20 FT wind gust.8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.17 16 16 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 14 14
Stability.......C E E F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8
ADI.............36 11 11 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.28 19 17 10 7 8 7 9 7 8 7 6
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...003 003 005 005 005 009 009 009 010 010 010 011
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph early
in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Max mixing hgt......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 18 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (63043 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............76.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........53 43 33 39 52 49
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............76 79 85 88 90 90
RH..............100 96 78 69 65 62
20 ft wind......SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 S 7 S 7
20 ft wind gust.6 7 10 12 12 13
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1400 2700 3900 3900 3500
Transport wind..SW 13 SW 15 SW 16 SW 16 SW 16 S 17
Stability.......F A B B C B
LVORI...........9 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............6 27 54 76 59 75
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 21 44 63 63 61
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD
Sfc pres (in)...30.11 30.15 30.15 30.16 30.15 30.15
$$
Forecaster...Morgan
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2418728.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org