Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KLUB 011138
FWSLUB

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for FBU 3 - Sisk Pen...TPWD
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on October 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

If you have questions or concerns with this forecast,
please contact our office at (806) 745-4926.

.DISCUSSION...
Very similar to the FBU 3 situation. RH values around start time will be around 60 percent dropping into
the 30s around lunchtime and bottoming out in the 20s this afternoon.
Winds, initially northeasterly at 5-10 mph, will veer to the east
by mid-day with little increase in speed.  Estimated ERCs are near the
75th percentile.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 12 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 14 mph increasing to 14 to 17 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........9      5      5      12     8      11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............53     59     69     76     78     78
RH..............71     54     34     21     19     19
20 ft wind......N 3    N 6    NE 9   NE 12  E 10   E 9
20 ft wind gust.5             12     14     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....100    400    2400   5400   6600   4400
Transport wind..N 6    NE 9   E 14   E 17   E 15   E 14
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 14 mph shifting to the southeast 2 to
                    3 mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      9      7      8      6      14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............76     67     61     57     55     51
RH..............21     28     36     42     43     52
20 ft wind......E 9    E 6    E 3    SE 3   SE 2   S 2
20 ft wind gust.12            5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   BLW100 100    BLW100 100    100
Transport wind..E 14   E 10   E 5    SE 2   SE 2   SE 3
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 7 to 14 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 7 mph increasing to 12 to 21 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........13     6      9      14     25     32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     49     60     70     77     81
RH..............58     56     39     31     25     23
20 ft wind......SW 2   SW 3   S 7    S 10   S 13   S 14
20 ft wind gust.       4             13     16     17
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 300    1300   3000   4600   4800
Transport wind..SE 2   S 7    S 16   S 18   S 20   S 21
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...JURECKA
Requested by...Matthew Poole
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2013160.0/LUB
.DELDT 10/01/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL matt.poole@tpwd.state.tx.us


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