045
FNUS71 KLWX 231257
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Passage Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
857 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EDT on July 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A warm front remains stalled across the area, bringing multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. A cold
front looks to cross the area Thursday night, with high pressure
and drier conditions returning Friday into the weekend.

For today, a few showers and thunderstorms may approach the
Shenandoah Valley by the early to mid-afternoon hours. While most
storms should be below severe criteria, there is a marginal threat
for isolated instances of flooding later today. Rainfall totals,
especially in any heavier showers and storms may approach 1 to 2
plus inches in localized areas.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 6 mph shifting to the south 5 to 6
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (23700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........70     71     70     68     64
Weather cov.....                     SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     SCTTRD SCTTRD
CWR.............0      0      0      30     50
Temp............72     80     86     87     85
RH..............84     65     50     48     55
20 ft wind......N 0    NW 1   SW 2   S 2    S 2
20 ft wind gust.5      5      6      6      7
Eye level wind..N 0    NW 1   SW 1   S 1    S 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.3      3      4      4      4
Mix hgt (ft)....600    2300   4500   5500   4700
Transport wind..W 5    NW 6   W 5    SW 3   S 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      12     18     16     24
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous showers
                    and scattered thunderstorms.
CWR.................60 percent decreasing to 40 percent early in
                    the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........71     84     85     87     87     85
Weather cov.....NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............60     60     60     60     60     60
Temp............84     80     76     73     73     71
RH..............59     72     82     90     87     93
20 ft wind......S 2    SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   S 2    SW 2
20 ft wind gust.7      7      6      6      5      5
Eye level wind..S 1    SW 1   SW 1   SW 1   S 1    SW 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.4      4      4      4      3      3
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   1400   400    100    100    100
Transport wind..S 8    S 10   S 7    S 3    S 2    S 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26     12     2      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    showers in the morning and early afternoon.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    morning, then showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 70 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (46800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........82     80     79     80     83     82
Weather cov.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............40     40     40     40     70     70
Temp............71     72     76     79     83     85
RH..............90     93     85     74     65     61
20 ft wind......SW 2   W 2    SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   SW 3
20 ft wind gust.5      6      6      6      7      8
Eye level wind..SW 1   W 1    SW 1   SW 1   SW 1   SW 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.3      4      4      4      4      5
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 200    800    3800   7600   7100
Transport wind..SW 3   W 5    W 6    W 7    W 7    W 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0      1      4      23     46     43
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Mansfield
Requested by...Aaron Strobel
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418723.0/LWX
.DELDT 07/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vavic@firenet.gov