386
FNUS72 KMLB 261052
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for SR 51 RX...Florida Park Seevice
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
652 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated onshore moving showers will be possible this morning.
Light southerly winds shift to the east-southeast around 11 AM as
the east coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Additional
showers and lightning storms developing along the sea breeze will
be possible, which could produce gusty and erratic winds, and
occasional cloud to ground lightning. Most storms should remain
west of I-95 by the afternoon, but chaotic boundary interactions
could push activity back towards the coast. Smoke dispersion will
be Good in the late morning and afternoon. High in the L90s with
peak heat indices up to 105. A similar setup tomorrow but higher
rain chances.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
the afternoon, then slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes until 1500, then 1-8
                    strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 in the
morning, shifting to the east-southeast 5 to
12 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2100-3100 ft AGL increasing to 3700-3900 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph shifting to southeast 10 to
15 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 43.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  31  35  34  32  31  33  32  30
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  20  30  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   3   2   2   2
Temp............82  86  88  89  90  89  89  90  89
RH..............83  72  68  66  63  65  65  62  64
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   5   7   8   10  10  10  12  12
20 FT wind gust.7   7   8   9       13  13  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 3.1 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  E   SE  E
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   8   9   12  12  12  12
Dispersion idx..18  26  29  34  42  47  45  39  38
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2400, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming light.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100-2800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in
the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south
late in the evening.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............Increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........29     35     33     38     26     26
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     10     10     10
LAL.............2      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............87     82     80     80     78     76
RH..............67     79     84     86     88     95
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 8   SE 6   S 6    S 3    S 2
20 ft wind gust.13     13     13     10     7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....2800   1100   400    400    400    400
Transport wind..E 13   SE 12  SE 10  S 12   S 7    S 7
Dispersion idx..41     8      5      5      3      3
LVORI...........2      4      4      5      6      6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    shifting to the east late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 3600-4100 ft AGL
late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 41.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........24        24        32        35
Weather cov.....                              CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        40
LAL.............1         1         1         3
Temp............75        81        90        90
RH..............96        81        61        61
20 FT wind......S 2G6     S 3G7     SE 8G9    E 10G12
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1400      3600      4100
Transport wind..S 6       S 6       S 7       S 10
Dispersion idx..3         10        30        43
LVORI...........8         4         2         1

$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Burn Boss
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2418997.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patrick.sullivan@floridadep.gov