Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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739
FNUS75 KRIW 180127
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for MURPHY...Casper Interagency Dispatch Center
National Weather Service Riverton WY
727 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

A system will continue to move through the area. Gusty north winds
will persist through the evening, with a gradual shift to out of
the west around midnight. Gusts around or above 20 mph are
expected through the night. Additionally, rain showers will move
through the area tonight, with totals of 0.05 to 0.15 possible
through sunrise. Gusty winds continue Tuesday with only a low
chance of rain.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms through the night.
CWR.................26 percent decreasing to 4 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 2 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 15 mph shifting to the west
                    11 to 17 mph around midnight. Gusts up to 25
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any
showers or thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......North 25 mph shifting to the west around midnight.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL decreasing to 800 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....North 25 mph shifting to the west around midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (56500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (12100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........2 to 4.

TIME (MDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........79  81  83  84  85  74  63  52  41  30
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CWR.............30  30  30  30  0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  30  20  10  10  10
LAL.............3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
Temp............65  60  57  54  51  49  48  45  43  43
RH..............50  60  66  71  77  75  68  66  66  66
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..15  14  14  14  14  17  16  15  13  11
20 FT wind gust.20  19  19  19  19  23  22  20  18  16
Ridge wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.8 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.25  24  24  25  26  25  24  23  21  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100042  38  36  57  48  32  20  21  14  12

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Generally northwest 11 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 23 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph shifting to the north 15
                    to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 9000 ft AGL by 1400.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Increasing to excellent by 1200.
Haines Index........2 to 3.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  15  12  8   10  12  14  20  26  32  32  33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............41  43  47  50  53  56  58  60  62  63  63  63
RH..............67  63  58  51  46  39  37  35  32  29  30  29
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..11  12  15  17  17  17  16  14  12  11  10  11
20 FT wind gust.14  17  20  23  23  23  22  19  18  16  14  14
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Ridge wind spd..20  20  25  25  25  25  25  20  20  20  15  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 2.6 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.2 7.1 8.4 9.3 10  9.1 7.4
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   NW  W   NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.18  23  24  25  25  25  24  23  23  18  18  18
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100014  52  74  91  111 136 150 168 187 163 145 119

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 11 mph becoming light.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 15 to 20 mph shifting to the north
                    around 10 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (95700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........33  34  34  35  36  37  38  46  55  63  61  58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  60  55  52  49  46  44  43  42  41  40  39
RH..............34  38  47  55  60  67  73  76  77  79  81  84
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  9   7   6   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  16  13  10  7   6   6   6   6   6
Ridge wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   NE  N
Ridge wind spd..20  20  20  20  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 4.8 3.4 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.18  18  18  18  16  14  12  10  10  10  10  9
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100096  77  54  31  21  14  9   7   6   5   5   4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph early
                    in the morning, then shifting to the southeast
                    5 to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......West around 10 mph shifting to the southeast
                    early in the morning, then shifting to the east
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 9 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 13 mph early in the morning, then shifting
                    to the southwest 14 to 15 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56  54  52  50  41  32  23  26  30  33  35  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............40  43  47  51  55  58  61  64  67  69  71  72
RH..............83  78  69  62  55  49  43  37  33  29  25  23
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   8   10  10  11  11  12  12  13
Ridge wind dir..NW  W   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.3 5.0 6.4 7.7 9.0 8.8 8.5
Transp wind dir.NE  E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.9   9   10  10  10  12  12  13  14  15  14  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10004   10  18  25  32  43  50  70  92  117 105 111

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Northeast winds around 7 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds around
7 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Northwest winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Myers
Requested by...Adam Spaulding
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416322.0/RIW
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wycpc@firenet.gov