Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
943
FNUS72 KTBW 140853
FWSTBW
Spot Forecast for CFC-14...FLDEP
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
453 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Deep moisture and a humid airmass remain in place over the
peninsula minimizing any minimum RH concerns over the forecast
period. A surface trough moving across the state will lead to
potential numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
developing across the area this afternoon through evening, with
winds generally west to northwest around 10 mph or less, likely
gusty and erratic in the vicinity of storms.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms late in
the afternoon, then numerous showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest
late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 13 mph shifting to the northeast late
in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then
increasing to 32 late in the morning increasing
to 47 late in the morning decreasing to 38
decreasing to 26 late in the afternoon
decreasing to 16.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28 27 26 33 42 54 58 64 68 74 80
Weather cov..... SCT SCT SCT WID WID WID NUM
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCT SCT SCT WID WID WID NUM
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 50 50 50 80 80 80 70
Temp............75 77 81 86 87 88 89 90 91 86 84
RH..............97 91 83 72 68 64 61 59 58 66 71
20 FT wind dir..W W W W NW NW NW NW W W NW
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.8 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.3 2.0 1.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW NW NW N NE
Transp wind spd.6 8 10 13 13 12 12 12 12 9 8
Dispersion idx..4 8 18 32 43 48 50 46 38 26 16
LVORI...........7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Numerous showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening, then
isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest 5 to
7 mph overnight.
Dispersion index....6.
LVORI...............7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81 82 79 70 61 60 52 43 43 21 19 22
Weather cov.....NUM NUM ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NUM NUM ISO ISO ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............82 78 77 75 75 74 74 73 73 72 72 72
RH..............75 85 88 94 91 94 95 99 97 99 100 98
20 FT wind dir..W NW W W W NW W NW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.12 9 8 7 5 5 5 3 5 5 3 5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW W NW W NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 5
Dispersion idx..10 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
LVORI...........4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Isolated showers
and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the
morning, then widespread showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph late
in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
morning.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the south 3 to 12
mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 25.
LVORI...............6.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32 35 39 42 44 46 49 52 54 58 62 65
Weather cov..... ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT WID WID WID WID
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT WID WID WID WID
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 20 20 50 50 50 90 90 90 90
Temp............72 72 75 79 82 85 87 88 88 88 87 86
RH..............100 100 94 84 76 70 66 63 62 62 63 66
20 FT wind dir..W W W SW S S S S S S SE SE
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.3 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.7
Transp wind dir.W S S S SE SE S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 12
Dispersion idx..2 2 4 7 11 15 18 20 22 24 25 25
LVORI...........10 9 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
$$
Forecaster...Hurt
Requested by...David Grimm
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2517920.0/TBW
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.grimm@floridadep.gov