Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 211447

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
947 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Per the 12Z NCEP surface analysis a 1008 mb low was located over
the NT1 waters. A warm front extends SE from the low center into
the NE NT2 waters and a cold front extends SW from the low
center down across the inner N and central NT2 waters, connecting
to a stationary front along the SE coast. Based on the agreement
of the 06Z GFS/NAM with the prior 00Z guidance I see no reason
to make adjustments to the ongoing forecast in place. Current
warning headlines will remain as is for this intermediate
forecast update.

Please refer to the previous discussion below for additional


There was a ASCAT and ASCATB passes at about 0130Z and 0240Z,
respectively. The swaths were across central and southern areas
of the mid Atlc where max winds were to 30 kt with the strongest
winds over the inner mid Atlc offshore waters.

At 06Z high pressure ridge is centered just E of the offshore
waters and will continue to move E of the area today. Low
pressure was just E of the northern Delmarva coast early this
morning while moving NE and turns more E and over the New England
waters later this morning while intensifying. At 06Z the
associated cold front was along the mid Atlc coast and moves SE
across the waters. Have not seen any observations showing gales
force at this time, but with cold front pushing offshore likely
will have some reports in advance of the front over the outer
mid Atlc waters. The cold front moves SE into the S mid Atlc
waters by later tonight and stalls becoming stationary from Fri
into early Sat. A high pressure ridge build in across the
central and northern offshore waters tonight and Fri and moves E
over the area Fri night into Sat. By Sat the stalled front
returns to the N as a warm front with increasing southerly flow
by Sun as strong low pressure moves NE over the Great Lakes.
Another low pressure eventually develops near the coast of inner
waters of the northern mid Atlc and New England coast Sun along
the front and moves NE. The UKMET/GEM/GFS and ECMWF are similar
with a low pressure deepening and tracking along the New England
coast and then over the Canadian maritimes. The GEM/UKMET/ECMWF
are showing strong cold air advection from Mon into Mon night
across the New England into northern mid Atlc waters, although
the ECMWF does not show as strong advection. Will favor the UKMET
and GFS with grids with this event and will stay with winds to
45 kt.

.SEAS...For seas will use a 50/50 blend of the WWIII and ECMWF
wam through 12Z Sun. Will then use the prior grids from 12Z Sun
into 00Z Mon and thereafter will use the 50/50 blend of the WWIII
and ECMWF wam from 00Z Mon through the end of the forecast

guidance for today. Otherwise will no surges over the waters
during the next day or two. For more details please monitor the
latest forecast and information from your local National Weather
Service office.


.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ800...Gulf of Maine...
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ815...South of Long Island...
     Gale Possible Sunday night into Monday night.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...
     Gale Possible Sunday night into Monday.
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Gale Possible Sunday.


.Forecaster Holley/Rowland. Ocean Prediction Center. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.