Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 04N to inland
the western section of Guatemala. It is moving westward at about
12 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are increasing within
120 nm east of the wave axis from 05N to 10N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low centered over
northwestern Colombia near 11N74W westward to across northern
Panama and to the coast at 09N84W. It continues west-northwest
to 11N96W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 11N107W, then to low
pressure of 1011 mb near 10N121W and to a 1012 mb low near
10N132W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen from 06N to 09N between
103W-107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between 86W-89W and also
between 99W-101W. Similar activity is within 30 nm south of the
trough between 108W-110W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the trough between 131W-132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered near north of the
area near 34N138W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands,
while low pressure is present over Mexico. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting generally gentle to moderate
northwest winds west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds
are elsewhere. Wave heights have subsided a little to 5-6 ft west
of Baja California and are 4-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico. Wave heights are in the 1-2 ft range in the Gulf of
California.

The area of high pressure over the Pacific forecast waters will
weaken through Wed maintaining winds off the coast off Baja
California at gentle to moderate speeds.

Agricultural fires in Mexico continue to produce hazy skies from
near the Tehuantepec region to northwestern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow continues
south of 10N, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon
trough. Wave heights in the 4-6 ft range are due to southwest
swell.

Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will continue over the next few
days. Moderate long-period southwest will continue through the
middle part of the upcoming week with wave heights building to
near 8 ft to the southwest of the Galapagos Islands by Wed.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred
miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, Guatemala and and
El Salvador late in the upcoming week. This will bring unsettled
weather in the form of increasing showers and thunderstorms,
with gusty winds, to those waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb is centered north of the area near
34N138W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridging
and low pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the
monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate northeast winds
north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate south to
southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, while gentle to
moderate southeast winds are south of the ITCZ. Wave heights are
in the 5-7 ft range over the area. Scatterometer data from Sun
afternoon revealed a few areas of weak lows embedded within the
monsoon trough. One low with a pressure of 1009 mb is near
11N107W, another one with a pressure of 1011 mb is near 10N121W
and a 1012 mb low is near 10N132W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 120 nm in the SW and W quadrants of the
low near 11N107W, while similar activity has recently developed
within 90 nm in the NW quadrant of the low near 10N132W.

Southerly flow to the south of the monsoon trough will
strengthen slightly through Tue night roughly between 102W-118W.
This will help build wave heights to 8-9 ft over these waters.

The area of high pressure will weaken through Wed as surface
troughing develops across the north-central waters. Low pressure
is forecast to develop by Wed along the troughing near 25N130W.
The troughing may transition to more a frontal structure type
feature.

$$
Aguirre



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