Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 250307

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.


Pacific Significant Swell Event: Altimeter satellite data
indicate that combined seas of 10 to 14 ft are found over much
of the tropical Pacific, especially north of 04N and west of
110W. Fresh to strong trade winds are present from the ITCZ to
25N and west of 115W. Seas generated from the large area of
trades are mixing with longer-period NW swell. The winds will
diminish slightly, allowing the wave heights to subside below 12
ft through late Sun. Large NW swell to 14 ft will also impact the
waters off Baja California Norte late Sat into Sun, but this
will also subside through late Sun. Looking ahead, yet another NW
to N swell event with seas of 12 ft or greater may propagate
south of 30N by the middle of next week behind a weakening cold

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at for more details.


A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to
06N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N94W to 02N120W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and
between 101N and 125W.


A broad subtropical ridge north of the eastern tropical Pacific
extends southwestward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure system and lower pressures
over Mexico support fresh to strong northerly winds in the
offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 8-11
ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds are also evident over the
southern portion of the Gulf of California, and off Cabo
Corrientes. Wave heights of 7-10 ft are occurring between Cabo
Corrientes and Los Cabos. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light breezes and
moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of
the weather pattern across the region through early next week.
Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night,
with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the
southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. NW swell of
8-11 ft offshore Baja California will linger into Sat. This will
be reinforced by another group of NW swell expected to reach the
waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of 10-14
ft, with the highest wave beyond 90 nm. This swell will decay
late Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW to W winds may
develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed ahead of an
approaching cold front.


Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found in the Gulf of
Papagayo region, extending westward to 90W. Seas in these waters
are 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted
in the Gulf of Panama, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will
pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua,
mainly at night Sat night through mid week. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast


Please see Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event over the west-central waters.

The strong ridge north of the tropical eastern Pacific waters and
the lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain a large area of
fresh to strong winds, primarily south of 25N and west of 110W.
Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft, with the highest seas occurring
from 06N to 23N and west of 115W. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong winds will
diminish late this weekend as the high pressure weakens ahead of
a cold front approaching from the northwest. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere. The cold front is forecast to move across the waters
north of 25N Tue and Wed.

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