Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
AXPZ20 KNHC 240222

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
023 UTC Thu Oct 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 06N, moving
west around 10-15 kt. This wave is helping to induce some
convective activity over the Bay of Campeche.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W from 05N to 18N, moving
west around 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis
from 13N to 17N.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N94W to 09N110W to
1011 mb low pressure near 13N117W to 11N129W. The ITCZ begins
near 11N129W and continues to 12N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is N of 08N between 83W and 85W to the
coast of Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N
to 12N between 97W and 99W, from 08N to 10N between 101W and
103W, near 08N109W, and from 10N to 12N between 118W and 120W.


A surface ridge west of Baja California will continue to support
a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft

Gulf of California: Strong high pressure is expected to build
over the Great Basin Thu into Fri, bringing an increase in winds
and seas mainly over the northern part of the gulf. Fresh to
strong NW-N winds of 20-30 kt and building seas of 8-9 ft are
forecast N of 29.5N Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong winds in the
20-25 kt range and seas to 8 ft will also affect the central
gulf on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat morning.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds are ongoing
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. This gap wind
event is expected to end early on Thu. A strong ridge building E
of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin
to funnel through the Chivela Pass late Fri night, increasing to
gale force by early Sat morning. Winds are expected to peak
35-40 kt, with seas building to up to 12 or 13 ft with this
event. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun

Of note: Climatology indicates that on average 11.9 gale-force
events and 6.3 storm-force events occur in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec each cold season. About 84 percent of these events
occur between November and March, with the largest number of
gale-foce events occuring in December. Storm-force events are
most frequent in January. Gale-force events have occured as early
as September and as late as May.


Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador while mainly gentle to moderate SW
monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters
of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend.
A set of long period SW swell will reach the area on Fri, but
seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore


A ridge prevails across the northern waters N of 20N W of 120W.
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer
data N of 28N W of 130W. Earlier altimeter passes and a ship
observation suggest seas are likely still 7-10 ft in mixed swell
and NE wind waves. High pressure centered well north of the
region will remain nearly stationary and gradually weaken through
Thu, allowing these winds to diminish and seas to subside through
late week.

Southerly swell currently moving into the far southern waters
is resulting in a brief period of 8 ft seas south of the Equator
and west of 100W. A surge in the monsoon flow, combined with
southerly swell, could produce another area of 8 ft seas from 03N
to 07N between 98W and 108W on Thu. This area of 8 ft seas will
propagate northeastward while subsiding to less than 8 ft by Fri

GR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.