Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPQ20 PGUM 241915

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
515 AM ChST Sat Mar 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.




The near-equatorial trough sits south of the Republic of Palau and
Yap. Convergent trade-wind flow north and east of the trough is
generating spotty deep convection around the main islands of Palau
and islands of Yap State.

A somewhat ill-defined trade-wind trough is centered near Pohnpei and
far western Marshall Islands with scattered deep convection.

The leading edge of a weak ITCZ is evident on satellite well south
of Majuro near 2N latitude. Batches of showers are seen over western
Kiribati eastward to beyond the dateline along 3-4N latitude.

The near-equatorial trough will change little in strength and
position the next few days. Disorganized, pulsing shower activity is
likely to continue in the vicinity of the trough.

The trade-wind trough near Pohnpei is expected to shuffle westward
through the weekend, with its convection anchoring to areas of
enhanced upper-level divergence. This is likely to bring heavy
showers and the odd thunderstorm to northern Chuuk State and waters
just east of the Marianas early next week.

The ITCZ is forecast to stretch westward and lift northward in the
coming days, bringing increased shower activity to Kosrae and
Marshall Islands south of 8N early next week.


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