028
FXUS62 KCAE 130012
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
812 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore on Monday and increasing moisture
supports an unsettled week with chances for showers and
thunderstorms for much of the week. A bit drier air moves in for
Thursday before moisture returns for the weekend. Temperatures
near to slightly below average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Dry conditions likely to persist through the near term. Surface
high pressure will slowly slip off the East Coast tonight. This
will allow moisture to return to the area and lead to
increasing cloud cover through the early morning hours. Even
though winds will be calm or light overnight, mostly cloudy
skies by daybreak should keep temperatures warmer than they have
been the past few nights. Expect low temperatures to mainly be
in the mid to upper 50s. Even as isentropic lift increases over
the Deep South tonight, the low levels remain very dry which
should prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground
through 6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge axis in place will shift to the east with southwest
flow developing over the forecast area. This will lead to deep
layer moisture increasing through the course of the day,
beginning in the mid and upper levels with forecast soundings
indicating it will take a bit longer to saturate the lower
levels. SREF mean runs have been trending wetter, however,
especially for the CSRA so pops have continued to increase, with
highest precip potential in the second half of the day. High
temperatures have trended a degree or two cooler in the CSRA as
a result with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s in the east.
Monday night, a warm front along the Gulf will begin to lift
northward towards the forecast area with increasing isentropic
lift leading to more widespread showers and potentially some
elevated thunderstorms with forecast soundings indicating some
instability above the surface.

HREF mean indicates that PWATs Tuesday will climb to above 1.6
inches across the entire area with forecast soundings showing a
near saturated column from the surface to the upper levels.
While there is likelihood of rain at times on Tuesday, there
does remain plenty of uncertainty. A shortwave will push through
the forecast area with uncertainty as its timing with a later
timing causing more concern for the potential for severe weather
as deep layer shear will support organized storms if they can
develop. Another question mark is the potential for an MCS to
form along the Gulf Coast and move east, which would likely miss
us to the south and typically is a climatologically favored
"failure mode" for significant and widespread convection over
the area. For now, the SPC places most of the area in a marginal
risk for severe weather and we will have to closely monitor
upstream development along the Gulf over the next couple days.
Any convection that does develop will produce locally heavy
rain. Behind the shortwave that moves through the area, models
do indicate a dry slot pushing into the area for Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be similar to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper trough associated with our significant increase in
moisture will move over the area Wednesday and while ensemble
means indicate PWATs will decrease slightly, lift provided by
the upper trough and high probability (60 to 70 percent) of
PWATs greater than 1 and a quarter inch in the northeastern
portion of the area will support scattered to widespread showers
and storms, especially in the Pee Dee. Upper ridging over the
forecast area develops Thursday with subsidence generally over
the area, limiting convection. Ensemble members show an increase
of moisture once again for late week into the weekend which will
keep the weather unsettled, although there is some uncertainty
in the progression of a couple upper systems which will provide
forcing to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the period with restrictions possible
near the end of the period.

Weak high pressure northeast of the area will continue moving
away from the region as a disturbance moves toward the area from
the western Gulf Coast. Dry air in place will begin to moisten
early Monday morning as flow turns SE then S by mid afternoon.
Cigs are currently expected to remain VFR through the end of the
period however will be lowering through the afternoon with some
SCT 1.5 kft clouds in AGS/DNL by early afternoon. Have also
included mention of VCSH at all terminals from 18z onward as the
disturbance moves into the area. Winds will be light and
variable through 15z then become SE around 7 knots finally
veering to S at 8 knots around 20z. Fog is not expected tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible Monday night through
Wednesday and again on Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...