


Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
092 AWUS01 KWNH 140715 FFGMPD TXZ000-141230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0680 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...Heart of Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 140715Z - 141230Z SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient shallow convection near compact mid-level circulation may result in localized 2-4" pockets over wet grounds, posing small localized incidents of possible flash flooding. DISCUSSION...KFWS and GOES-E 3.9um SWIR loop shows shallow but organized line of convection across Hamilton to Hill county, TX along the south and southwest quadrants of a 700-500mb vorticity center. VWP suite depicts this elongated wave well, including the increase of 925-850mb slightly veered profile with 20-30kts of increased flow. Speed convergence along remnant boundary is providing sufficient isentropic ascent along the northern MUCAPE gradient with values of 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer moisture (pooled below 700mb per CIRA LPW) at or above 2". Fairly deep warm cloud processes still have been producing 2-3"/hr rates and given steering from 850-500mb is generally parallel or along-track of the convergence boundary toward the center of the vorticity center near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro (per satellite imagery); spots of quick 3-5" are possible over the next few hours. Given heavy rainfall/saturated grounds, FFG values from Ellis to San Saba county are less than 2"/hr. As such, localized flash flooding is considered possible over the next few hours. Uncertainty lies upstream across the Colorado River Valley; surface to 850mb low level jet is less orthogonal to the deeper layer shear axis aloft and almost parallel. However, the anticyclonic turning of the LLJ responding to the mid-level vorticity center may have some convergence along the eastern side of the LLJ and support back-building toward the southwest of the ongoing convective line. Coverage should be more scattered in nature IF cells do develop, but given even higher ground sensitivity due to last evening`s convection, have included it in the area of concern though with a much lower probability and higher uncertainty factor. An upstream MPD should be forthcoming for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grand Valley of South-Central Texas. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 32979705 32829619 32269581 31669621 31249670 30789811 30849875 31219892 31779873 32519798