Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FNUS76 KLOX 202318
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for Lake Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
418 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PDT on October 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A significant cooling trend is expected for the region starting
Thursday. A large trough near the West Coast will cause winds to
shift from the northwest to southwest by late Thursday morning. The
onshore flow will then continue through the period, becoming gusty
at times, with humidities increasing each day. A deep moist layer
will push inland over the area, which may produce low clouds and fog
over southern sections of the fire. There will be a ten percent
chance of rain, or more likely light drizzle, Friday and Saturday,
but no measurable rainfall is expected at this time (any rainfall
will be less than 0.01).

Further out, there is the potential for a moderate Santa Ana event
Monday and Tuesday of next week. If this occurs, critical fire
weather conditions could cover much of the area.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....71-75.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Eye level winds.....North to northwest 4-8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
                    becoming southwest 4-6 mph with gusts to 9 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North to northwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
                    becoming southwest 8-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
 Ridgetop...........North to northwest 10-15 mph with gusts to 22 mph
                    becoming southwest to west 10-12 mph with gusts
                    to 20 mph.
Chance of rain......0.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy, with a chance of low clouds and fog
                    over the southern portion of the fire area in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....63-68.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Chance of rain......10 percent.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of low
                    clouds and fog over the southern portion of the
                    fire in the morning.
Max temperature.....60-66.
Min humidity........45-50 percent.
Eye level winds.....West 4-8 mph becoming southwest 6-9 mph with
                    gusts to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West 8-15 mph with gusts to 18 mph becoming
                    southwest 12-18 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the
                    afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........West 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming
                    southwest 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of rain......10 percent.

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Jeffrey Stitt
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2013826.0/LOX
.DELDT 10/21/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL jeffrey.stitt@usda.gov


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