Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FNUS74 KMOB 201225
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Rock Creek 04...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
725 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 CDT on October 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Mostly dry conditions expected today and Wednesday.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out this
afternoon, and again on Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidities
remain above critical levels throughout the period with increasing
atmospheric moisture. Dispersions remain generally good across
the area through Wednesday.

Fog potential and other remarks...Any remaining patchy, light fog
will quickly scour out this morning as surface heating has begun.
Patchy light fog is again possible tonight into Wednesday
morning.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...91-1250 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 3 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....55 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21  14  11  8   5   5   5   6   7   9   10  20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............80  76  74  73  71  70  69  68  68  67  67  65
RH..............65  74  79  79  84  87  87  90  90  93  93  100
20 FT wind dir..ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE
20 FT wind spd..4   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.6   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Mix hgt (km)....1.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.E   ENE ENE ENE ENE E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  10  9   7
Trans wind dir..E   ENE ENE ENE ENE E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Trans spd (m/s).5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   4   4   3
Dispersion idx..55  6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   4   3   3
LVORI...........1   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   7   8

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...91-1219 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 15 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 3 to 7 meters/second.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 68.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  40  41  42  43  38  34  31  33  34  36  32
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............65  65  68  72  76  80  82  84  85  85  84  82
RH..............100 100 97  87  76  67  61  57  55  53  55  58
20 FT wind dir..ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE E   ENE ENE ENE ENE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   7   7   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
Mix hgt (km)....0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.ENE ENE ENE E   E   E   E   E   ENE ENE ENE ENE
Transp wind spd.6   6   8   10  13  14  14  14  14  15  15  15
Trans wind dir..ENE ENE ENE E   E   E   E   E   ENE ENE ENE ENE
Trans spd (m/s).3   3   4   4   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
Dispersion idx..3   7   9   15  23  36  48  58  61  64  65  68
LVORI...........9   8   7   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph becoming light. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...244-1128 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 17 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 5 to 8 meters/second.
Dispersion index....68 decreasing to 7.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........27  29  28  28  28  31  34  37  43  49  55  58
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............79  77  75  74  73  72  71  71  70  70  69  68
RH..............67  74  79  82  84  87  90  90  93  93  97  100
20 FT wind dir..ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.7   6   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
Mix hgt (km)....1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.ENE ENE E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   ENE ENE
Transp wind spd.15  13  17  17  17  16  14  12  12  12  12  12
Trans wind dir..ENE ENE E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   ENE ENE
Trans spd (m/s).7   6   8   8   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   5
Dispersion idx..68  6   7   8   8   7   6   6   7   8   8   8
LVORI...........2   4   4   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   8   8

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...213-1036 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 16 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 5 to 7 meters/second.
Dispersion index....13 increasing to 58.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........60           46           49
Weather cov.....                          CHANCE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                          CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10           10           30
LAL.............1            1            3
Temp............67           76           83
RH..............100          76           63
20 FT wind dir..ENE          E            E
20 FT wind spd..4            6            6
20 FT wind gust.6            7            8
Mix hgt (ft)....800          1700         3300
Mix hgt (m).....240          520          1010
Transp wind dir.ENE          E            E
Transp wind spd.12           14           16
Trans wind dir..ENE          E            E
Trans spd (m/s).5            6            7
Dispersion idx..8            28           54
LVORI...........8            3            1

$$
Forecaster...25
Requested by...Matt Delaney
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2013822.1/MOB
.DELDT 10/20/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL matthew.delaney@usda.gov



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