934
FXUS61 KCTP 121730
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1230 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Discussing timing and precip type for Tues night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Turning warmer to start the week with precip arriving Tuesday
night over the NW.

2) The potential remains for an area of surface low pressure
storm system to develop along a nearly stationary frontal
boundary over the Mid- Atlantic Piedmont or along the Delmarva
Coast and impact Pennsylvania during the second half of this
week, with snow or a wintry mix. There is still a significant
range of outcomes, including that only a weak storm will storm
will form with lighter precipitation. Stay tuned for later
forecasts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad area of surface high pressure stretched from the Lower
Miss Valley to the Southern Appalachians will create a gusty
west-southwesterly flow and slowly rising heights aloft today
through Tuesday. Wind gusts today will peak between 30 and 35
mph. A weak wave aloft will generate clouds across the nrn tier
of PA today. If any snowflakes fall from the clouds over nrn
PA, they`ll be barely worth a mention.

The period of quieter and mainly dry weather for today and
Tuesday still looks in good shape. A wave rolling to our north
on Tuesday will also make some clouds across the north during
the daylight hours.

The wave will initiate backing llvl flow to a more southerly
direction with warm advection and rising sfc-850 mb temps
through the day.

Sfc temps will rise to highs in the U30s N to near 50F S. Any
precip that would hit the ground will hold off until sunset
Tuesday or later in Warren County. This has been a highly
continuous and therefore high-confidence forecast for quite a
few days.

Diffluence aloft and good southerly flow at the sfc from the
western Gulf to our backyard should help moisture increase
Tuesday evening and through the night. Precip will start to drop
in from the NW. Temps will be marginal at the onset for rain vs
wet snow on the higher/cooler elevations. Forecast soundings
keep column temp within a deg or two of -3C below 10kft at BFD
with temp at sfc 30-32F with no overt warm nose. So, that would
be snow. Elsewhere, it should be warm enough at the sfc for
either a mix of RA/SN or just plain rain Tues night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The potential remains for a storm system to develop over the
Mid-Atlantic and impact Pennsylvania later in the week, with
snow or a wintry mix. However, a wide range of outcomes are
still on the table, including that the storm will fail to form
at all. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

An initial mid-week cold frontal passage, accompanied by rain
showers, could turn more interesting late Wed/Wednesday night
and Thursday, as the sfc front and deep layer cooling drifts
slowly east across the CWA, with precip expanding/moving NE on
the cool side of the boundary and beneath an area of increasing
upper level diffluence. The llvl boundary will likely stall
just east and south of the Commonwealth. Some model projections
bring a surface wave northeast along the front, with wintry
precipitation developing back into at least parts of central PA.
Latest NBM suggests roughly a 20 pct chance of at least Winter
Weather Advisory level snowfall, with a large spread in
potential accumulation and the operational GFS/EC indicating a
more robust/extended period of wintry precip/snow Wed night
through Thur Night.

Key model differences remain, and sensible weather during this
period will be driven by small-scale sensitivities in the
sfc/upper-level pattern, which are inherently hard to pin down
this far out. Please stay tuned for later forecast updates
and possible Winter Storm Watches or Winter Weather Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conds were found across most of central PA as we approach
18z, outside of the Laurel Highlands which continue to see MVFR
cigs.

Even the Laurels should see improvement to VFR this afternoon.
Westerly winds will continue to occasionally gust to around 20
kts this afternoon, before diminishing a bit this evening into
tonight.

Predominantly VFR conds will persist overnight through midday
Tuesday, with little more than some high and perhaps mid-level
cloudiness spilling overhead. Cigs will gradually lower across
NW PA through the afternoon and could approach MVFR by Tues
evening.

Additional deterioration is expected areawide Tues night into
Wed.

Outlook...

Tue...Generally VFR.

Tue night-Wed night...Light rain/snow gradually overspreading
the area, with deteriorating cigs and vsbys.

Thu...Restrictions persisting across N/W PA in occasional
-SHSN; windy.

Fri...Marginal improvement, not as windy.

Fri night-Sat...Light snow and restrictions possible across
primarily western PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Evanego