Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 242211
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
611 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region tonight into Tuesday. A
warm front crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Low pressure will approach later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6:11 PM Update: The wind is diminishing across the FA early
this evening, and will become light tonight as a 1040 millibar
surface high builds into Maine. There is an area of low pressure
visible on satellite well off the Mid Atlantic coast. The low
is expected to remain quasi-stationary tonight, and is being
blocked by the strong high to the north. There are cirrus clouds
extending from the low north into Downeast Maine. The clouds
could have some minor impact on lows across the southern half of
the FA. Across the north, where the sky will remain clear some
of the normally colder valleys with a fresh and deep snow cover
will likely drop below zero. The current forecast is on the low
end of guidance and will not make any changes, but would not be
surprised if a few valleys in the North Woods end up in the 5 to
10 below range by daybreak Monday. No significant changes are
planned at this time.

Previous discussion:
High pressure is providing dry weather and clear skies for
Northern Maine. Meanwhile, a departing low pressure system is
bringing a band of high clouds south and east of I-95 and is
helping to produce gusty northwesterly winds. As the high builds
in tonight, winds will subside across the North. Given the cold,
dry air mass in place and fresh snow cover, conditions will be
favorable for strong radiational cooling. Low temperatures could
drop below zero in the normally colder northern valleys tonight,
with single digits above zero elsewhere in the North. Thinking
some clouds will hang on in the Bangor region and Downeast,
along with light northerly winds. This will keep lows tonight
mainly in the teens above zero, with 20s at the Downeast coast.
Mostly sunny skies expected across the region Monday, with highs
in the 30s for most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure drifts northeast from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
Monday night while still ridging south across the forecast area. At
the same time, an inverted trof will extend northward toward Nova
Scotia from low pressure located well to the south. Expect mostly
clear skies north, mostly clear/partly cloudy Downeast, Monday
night. Moisture expands northward along the inverted trof Tuesday
with increasing clouds across the forecast area. Could also have a
chance of rain mostly during the afternoon. Moisture persists
along the inverted trof Tuesday night while another system
approaches from the west. Rain is likely across the forecast
area Tuesday night, possibly mixed with snow across northern
areas. Moisture persists Wednesday in advance of the system
approaching from the west. Rain is likely again Wednesday,
possibly mixed with snow early across northern areas.
Precipitation totals Wednesday are still uncertain. Near normal,
to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected
Tuesday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The system will begin to cross the region Wednesday night with
precipitation generally in the form of rain. Uncertainty exists
regarding how quickly the system moves east Thursday. Moisture
will also be drawn north from a system in the Mid-Atlantic
region. Rain should persist Thursday, possibly mixing with snow
across northern areas Thursday night. Uncertainty then increases
Friday/Saturday regarding the eventual track of the
Mid-Atlantic system. Precipitation chances Friday/Saturday will
be dependent on the eventual track. Precipitation should
diurnally trend toward a snow/rain mix, or snow, both Friday and
Saturday nights. Otherwise, expect precipitation mostly in the
form of rain. The system should exit across the Maritimes
Sunday. Another system could begin to approach later Sunday.
Above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday,
with near normal level temperatures Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals tonight and through the day
Monday. NW winds 5-10 knots this evening at the Aroostook County
terminals, becoming light and variable tonight. N-NW winds 5-10
kts at Downeast terminals through tonight. E-NE winds around 5
kts at Northern terminals and 5-15 kts at Downeast terminals on
Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night...VFR. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain.
North/northeast winds around 10 knots.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR. Snow and rain likely north, with rain
likely Downeast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
variable..

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. East/northeast winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming variable.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain likely. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain and snow north, with a
chance of rain Downeast. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain. North/northwest winds 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday
evening. Wave heights will remain elevated on the outer waters
tonight and Monday, reaching 6 to 10 feet. A few wind gusts
could approach gale force on the outer waters once again later
on Monday. SCA conditions on the intra- coastal waters tonight
and through the day Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts are possible Monday night
into Tuesday. Small craft advisory level conditions are then
expected Tuesday night/Wednesday. Rain likely Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...CB/Clark/Norcross
Marine...CB/Clark/Norcross


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