Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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500 FXUS63 KFGF 091934 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms in western Minnesota Friday afternoon. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Fairly quiet for the first part of the night, but a shortwave coming into Manitoba and Ontario over the top of the ridge could bring some increasing cloud cover and some light shower activity to northwestern MN later tonight. The shortwave will dig into MN/WI during the day tomorrow, bringing some decent broad lift over our eastern tier of counties into the afternoon. While much will depend on how morning showers play out and how much cloud cover remains, there is at least a 40 to 50 percent chance for 500 J/kg of CAPE by tomorrow afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear will be 30 kts at best, so not expecting any severe potential, but could see some impacts from lightning and very small hail across northwestern and west central MN. Winds will be breezy across much of the CWA as the shortwave comes down and some cold air advection brings some gusts up to 35 mph at times. Westerly surface winds and the warm sector of the surface low will bring very toasty readings for Saturday, and some spots in the RRV could push 80 degrees. A bit cooler Sunday as a trough axis/cold front passes through. The next significant trough starts to move into the western Plains on Tuesday, coming out in some manner on Wednesday although clusters are still all over the place. Still could see showers and a chance for thunderstorms, but specifics on timing and strength too soon to nail down at this point. Temps will cool down to near or just below seasonal averages as the more active weather returns. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions now and throughout the period with only some scattered cumulus clouds. Winds will be the primary issue with some gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon that will drop off by early evening. Winds will shift around to a more northwesterly direction tonight into tomorrow, picking up with sustained speeds in the 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to around 25 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR