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000
FXUS62 KGSP 281031
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend will continue into next week as high pressure
remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front
is expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A stronger front is expected to approach
the Carolinas by late week and bring more showers and thunderstorms
to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
600 AM Update...Current IR imagery shows continued terrain induced
clouds with low bases. These clouds will limit the fog potential
across the mtn valleys. A few spots arnd KUZA are developing dense
fog, but dont expect a widespread of dense fog threat thru the
morning hours.

Strong stacked ridging continues to dominate the pattern over the
near term period. Today`s weather will be similar to Sat and a
modified persistence method was used for the fcst. Still expect good
llvl Atl moisture adv today and low clouds will be present in some
fashion with the higher coverage likely across the BR escarpment due
to mech uplift. Could still see a period or two of -ra/dz or
sprinkles mainly across the NC mtns, but isol pockets may traverse
the Upstate and NE GA as well thru noon. Confidence was not high
enuf for a PoP mention, however. Lessening cloud cover during the
afternoon and more of a defined s/y to sw/ly llvl flow shud help max
temps to reach a cat or so abv normal. Overnight will see lowering
cloudiness as well with mid/upper dry air advection. Thus, along
with weak to calm sfc winds, expect min temps lowering to or a
little below normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2:55 AM EDT Sunday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Monday with broad upper ridging still centered over the Eastern
CONUS and an h5 low riding up the ridge and towards the western
Great Lakes. Over the next 24 hrs or so, an embedded upper short-
wave will approach our area from the west and help push the upper
ridge eastward. The shortwave will gradually translate over our
area late Tuesday and then move off the Carolina Coast as the
period is ending early Wednesday. At the sfc, broad high pressure
will be centered just off the SE Coast keeping warm and dry SLY
low-level flow over our area. Over the next 24 to 36 hrs, a weak
cold front will approach our fcst area from the west. The latest
guidance appears to be trending a bit slower with front`s approach,
and now suggests that it will move thru our CWA later on Tuesday.
This will likely result in more sfc-based instability across much
of our area when the front moves thru, and thus better convective
coverage Tuesday aftn/evening. This instability coupled with the
above-mentioned upper shortwave could produce some stronger thunder-
storms over our area. Regardless, the boundary should be east of our
CWA by the end of the period early Wednesday. Temperatures start out
1 to 2 categories above climatology on Monday and remain above climo
thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2:35 AM EDT Sunday: The extended forecast picks up at 12z on
Wednesday with an embedded upper shortwave moving off the Carolina
Coast as heights rebound over the Southeast and upper ridging begins
to gradually amplify. Over the next couple of days, numerous weak
upper shortwaves will lift to our north and towards the Ohio Valley
region. As we head into next weekend, broader upper trofing will dig
further southward and morph into a large, closed upper low somewhere
over the Great Lakes region. This will act to flatten the upper ridge
over our area as the period is ending. At the sfc, high pressure will
still be centered off the Southeast Coast as a weak cold front moves
east of our CWA as the period begins early Wednesday. In the front`s
wake, we`ll remain under weak, SLY low-level flow with the sfc high
remaining nearly stationary offshore and with a slight chance for
diurnal convection on Wed and more of a solid chance for Thursday.
By early Friday, reinforcing high pressure will migrate southward
from New England and settle just off the mid-Atlantic Coast. At the
same time, a more robust low is progged to eject out of the Plains
and bring a stronger cold front to our area by early Saturday. Most
of the long-range guidance has the front moving thru our area on
Sat with sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely Fri aftn
thru much of Sat. Weak high pressure slides in behind the front as
the period ends early Sunday. Temperatures will remain well-above
climatology thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds will continue across the area this
morning with occasional MVFR CIGs possible across most terminals,
except KCLT arnd daybreak. These clouds will lift or scatter fairly
quickly at KGMU/KHKY, but may linger longer toward noon at KAVL and
KAND. KCLT could see IFR VSBY and have included a TEMPO thru 14z.
VFR conds return to all sites by the afternoon and flight conds
remain non-restrictive thru the period. Southerly to southwesterly
winds will remain light/moderate with no great gust potential as the
sfc p/grad relaxes and relatively weak winds persist within the BL.

Outlook: Dry weather lingers through Monday. A frontal system could
bring a round of showers and storms to the area on Tuesday, with
more of a potential for mainly mountain isolated/scattered diurnal
convection on Wed/Thu.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK