Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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734 FXUS63 KLBF 091920 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/maybe a rumble of thunder north of I-80 through this evening, then mainly dry heading into the weekend. - Unsettled conditions return with scattered showers and thunderstorms into next week, particularly on Sunday and Tuesday into Wednesday. - Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal this weekend and continue warm into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A weakly forced environment with ample low level moisture and slight instability will keep a good amount of diurnally driven clouds and a few showers around central/western Nebraska into this evening. While a rumble of thunder can not be ruled out, given the meager instability the probabilities are quite low and with no significant shear no organized convection is expected. The best potential for precipitation will be north of I-80 and mainly along/north of Hwy 2. Coverage is expected to remain sparse and any precipitation amounts will be quite light. Any showers will be diminishing through this evening and largely dissipated by early tonight. As the upper trof continues to split with a closed low migrating slowly to the southwest while more northern stream energy dives down into the upper midwest, there may be enough residual moisture and instability in the weakly forced environment to support a stray shower tomorrow from the western sandhills into the northern panhandle, but overall conditions look to be dry across the region Friday through Friday night. Highs tomorrow will be just a tad on the cool side with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s in the panhandle to around 70 further to the east. Lows tonight and Friday night will be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Ensemble guidance is generally in good agreement into next week depicting the upper closed low over the southwest US eventually rejoining the progressive main flow this weekend, followed by additional northern stream energy pushing another trof through the Rockies and into the Plains toward the middle of next week. This pattern looks favorable for keeping extremes at bay with no discernable signal for any impactful weather through Wednesday. Overall this pattern will allow moisture to pool over the midsection of the country as is evident when looking at the low end signal in precipitable water anomalies, but nothing approaching upper percentiles. This ambient moisture will combine with the progressive pattern to keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast just about each day, particularly Sunday as the low over the southwest ejects and again Tuesday/Wednesday as the next upper trof drives a cold front through the region. Temperatures will be warming to a bit above seasonal normals through the weekend and into the first part of next week with highs generally in the 70s and lows generally in the 40s to around 50. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into this evening, with periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible through sunset. After sunset, precipitation should quickly wane, with low clouds exiting the area. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail through tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Winds remain gusty this afternoon from the north, before weakening and transitioning northwesterly tonight. Additional gusts from the northwest can be anticipated tomorrow afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Brown