870
FXUS66 KOTX 070534
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures arrive Monday and continue through Wednesday.
  The warmest day will be Tuesday.

- Dry conditions and increasing winds will bring elevated to
  critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Wednesday will be windy region-wide with gusts 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue with temperatures peaking Tuesday
before cooling back down Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing
winds combined with dry conditions Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday will result in elevated to critical fire weather
conditions. After a brief mid-week cooldown, warm temperatures
will return Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday night - Wednesday: The main concerns going into the new
week will be heat and fire weather. High pressure will begin to
build into the region over the next few days with temperatures
warming roughly 5 degrees each consecutive day, peaking on
Tuesday in the 90s to lower 100s. This will put nearly all of
the Inland Northwest into the moderate heat risk category by
Monday with the warmest locations inching into the major heat
risk by Tuesday. Locations expected to fall under major heat
risk include the Snake River Valley, southwestern Basin, and
Columbia River around Chelan, Wenatchee, and Priest Rapids where
triple digit heat will be accompanied by lows near 70F. The
good news is the heat wave is short-lived with 10 degrees of
cooling arriving by Wednesday. The not so good news is this will
come at the cost of increased winds and potential for critical
fire weather conditions.

A deep low will begin moving into the Inland Northwest Tuesday
afternoon and evening, and an accompanying dry cold front will
sweep through on Wednesday. Winds will start to pick up through
Tuesday afternoon through the Okanogan Valley, over the
Waterville Plateau, and across the western Columbia Basin with
sustained wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30
mph. If these winds arrive Tuesday afternoon as anticipated,
they will coincide with humidity levels in the low to mid teens
and temperatures in the upper 90s which would mean several hours
of critical fire weather conditions. Outside of Central WA,
wind gusts will stay in the 15 to 20 mph range which is below
critical thresholds, though still problematic for any new fire
starts.

By Wednesday, cold advection overtakes the entire Northwest with
widespread windy conditions. This ridge-crashing dry cold front
is a classic pattern for strong winds in July and is very
concerning for fire weather conditions. Temperatures cool
roughly 10-12 degrees from Tuesday but remain in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. The incoming system will bring an increase in
humidity values but with generally poor recoveries Wednesday
morning, humidity will still in the 20-30% range. Another thing
to watch out for will be a shift from westerly winds to
northwesterly winds as the trough rotates Wednesday night. If
there are new fires, it will be prudent to watch this forecast
closely for exact timing of this wind shift.

As for any precipitation and thunderstorms, we will be watching
two areas. One is a ribbon of elevated instability coming up
through northeast Oregon Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. There is a 20% chance that this moisture and threat for
elevated thunderstorms impacts far SE WA and NC Idaho. The
second area will be along the Canadian Border on Wednesday
afternoon where there will be potential for convection under
the upper- level cold pool.

Thursday through Saturday: General model consensus shows a
short-lived drop in temperatures Thursday followed by a return
of warmer weather Friday into the weekend. When the weekend
warming period inevitably breaks down, it is likely that there
another increase in winds and renewed potential for elevated
fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High cirrus passing through, otherwise mostly
clear skies with VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Winds
will be light and generally under 10 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through Monday night.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  91  61  96  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  56  89  60  95  62  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        51  88  57  93  59  85 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Lewiston       62  97  66 103  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       48  89  52  94  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      51  85  54  92  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        60  86  64  92  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     58  96  62 101  64  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      65  95  69  99  69  85 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           59  94  62  99  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$