226
FXUS64 KOUN 091915
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
215 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of central,
southern, and southeastern Oklahoma early this afternoon, driven
by a weak mid- level shortwave aiding in ascent above the residual
frontal zone. Stronger surface-based convection is confined along
and south of the front down near I-20, but as we have already
seen today, elevated convection in our area will still have the
potential for large hail up to the size of golf balls through the
afternoon before activity weakens and moves out of the area early
this evening.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Dry and mild conditions are expected Friday and Saturday as we see a
brief period of ridging ahead of a cutoff low over the western US
which will slowly move across the area Sunday into Monday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase as early as
Saturday night across western portions of the area, spreading
eastward through the day Sunday and exiting eastern parts of the
area later in the day on Monday. Can`t rule out a strong to severe
storm across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas where
instability will be a bit higher, but overall chances for organized
severe weather appear rather low with this system. Given recent
heavy rainfall, flooding could become a concern but would likely be
limited in aerial coverage.

Another system will be quick on its heels by Wednesday or Thursday
of next week and will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms to much of the area. Depending on the degree of
moisture return this system could bring with it some potential for
severe weather, but the details remain rather uncertain with
disagreement among the models on track and timing of the system from
this range.


Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
western north Texas (affecting KSPS). These thunderstorms will
continue to move the east-northeast this afternoon. Large hail is
the primary hazard with any of the thunderstorms. KDUA will likely
be affected this afternoon. The probability of affecting any
other terminals is too low to include in the TAFs (low chance for
KLAW and KOUN).

Otherwise, winds will generally remain from the north to
northeast.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  53  76  54 /  30   0   0   0
Hobart OK         80  53  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78  55  78  55 /  40   0   0   0
Gage OK           79  47  78  50 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  51  75  52 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         82  58  78  56 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...10