483
FXUS65 KREV 111953
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1253 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hottest temperatures so far this year will occur this weekend
  into early next week across the area with widespread moderate to
  major HeatRisk.

* Lighter winds this weekend return to the usual SW/W afternoon
  breezes next week. Localized haze and smoke from northern
  California and southern Oregon fires may minorly reduce
  visibility and air quality through the weekend.

* A 5-15% chance for thunderstorm development this weekend into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Things are heating up out there as a strong ridge expands over the
  region. The first triple digit readings of the season are expected
  for much of western Nevada this weekend into Monday, with only
  slight relief to near normal mid-July heat by the middle of next
  week. Sierra valleys will even soar into the upper 80s to low 90s,
  roughly 10 degrees above normal. While there will be large diurnal
  swings, overnight lows will also be relatively mild compared to
  normal. A Heat Advisory is in place this weekend into the early
  part of next week for Western Nevada.

* Overall, dry southwest flow is present in the region, but with
  this much heat, there is building instability and it doesn`t take
  much to pop a stray thunderstorm. While low probability through
  the weekend, ~5-10% chance, if storms do form, they will not
  produce much rain and new lightning fire starts are a concern
  along with gusty and erratic outflow winds. High resolution
  ensembles are showing a few blips on simulated radar, and other
  forecast simulations show some mid and upper level moisture
  response, which are teetering on that edge between cumulus
  buildups and actual storm development. Additional storm chances
  are possible, 5-15% chance, through next week.

* Winds will be lighter than usual the next couple of days, with
  more typical afternoon SW/W Zephyr breezes returning next week
  as the ridge is slightly displaced and a trough drops through
  the northern Rockies. This flow will generally limit smoke from
  wildfires in Nrn CA and Srn Oregon, but periods of haze aloft
  will still sneak in from time to time, especially for far
  northern NV, closer to the source region. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

* Density altitude may be a concern mid-day throughout the
  weekend, esp for the higher elevation terminal sites in the
  Sierra, along with some daytime bumps from rising thermals.

* Otherwise, widespread VFR, with a 25% chance for some cumulus
  buildups over terrain this weekend, and a 5-10% chance for a
  stray thunderstorm Sat/Sun. Localized minor slantwise
  visibility reductions in the early morning due to patchy haze.

* Winds will be lighter than usual this weekend, with afternoon
  and early evening gusts 10-20 kts at terminal sites. More
  typical SW/W winds return next week with gusts 20-30 kts from
  approximately 21z-04z each day. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-
     003>005.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ070-
     071.

&&

$$