430
FXUS64 KSHV 110533
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1233 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Tweaked a few overnight lows and added a slight chance for showers
in eastern Texas for the overnight and a touch in the day ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A shield of clouds is currently over eastern TX and getting over many
western Parishes in LA. Air temps are cooling down quickly with a
good spread and a light N wind for many locales. The NWS radar
mosaics are showing some light rain showers from near DFW metro
down across Toledo Bend country in TX/LA. Central TX sfc obs are
showing some drizzle or light showers just a county or two over
and headed this way quickly at 60KTs on the brisk winds in the
mid levels.

So at the most, we will see the mid and high clouds interfere
with any shot of seeing the Aurora down here even from a super
dark spot away from city lights. The clouds act to spread the
distant city light from nearby compared to a beautiful dark clear
sky. So, Geomagnetic storm interests may have a better look from
Arkansas and the drive would make a difference. No chance along
and south of I-20 under the mid and high clouds. At any rate this
light rainfall will likely not measure except for an isolated
spot or two that manages to get under some of the thicker
middeck, like Natchitoches right now sporting a light shower dot.
(What?? I may have to update my update unless that goes away) Too
far east already, but maybe sprinkles may be all anyone sees with
a really good spread on temp and dew point over E TX and our
Parishes. Our latest balloon sounding shows dry air from the
ground up to 600mb and then 600-300mb is seeing quite a bit more
RH, nearing saturation even in a couple of spots at altitude.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Active and wet weather returns through the rest of the weekend and
through most of next week across the Four State Region. This is
due to a quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of
slower troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern
Mexico and the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances
will arrive late Sunday into most of Monday, then a break in
activity precedes the next round of activity is expected late
Wednesday into early Friday. Day 1-7 QPF values continue to trend
wetter with widespread 3-5 inch totals expected and isolated
higher amounts not out of the question (especially with rainfall
expected later next week). Temperature maximums/minimums will be
moderated by this activity as a result, remaining in the low-to-
mid 80s/upper 60s. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

For the 11/06z TAFS...Expect VFR conditions to prevail through
the period with some scattered to broken mid and high clouds
streaming through. Can`t rule out some brief isolated light rain
at KLFK overnight, then across most of the TAF sites after sunset
tomorrow. Winds will be light/variable overnight and again
Saturday night, with light ESE winds during daytime today.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  78  66  83 /  20  40  80  60
MLU  65  79  64  81 /  10  20  70  80
DEQ  60  79  61  77 /  10  20  70  70
TXK  64  79  64  80 /  10  20  80  60
ELD  61  78  61  79 /  10  20  70  70
TYR  65  76  65  83 /  30  60  80  40
GGG  64  76  65  82 /  20  50  80  50
LFK  65  78  67  84 /  30  70  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...20