Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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024 FXUS64 KSHV 120753 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 253 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The active pattern will finally get underway today, as heavy rain chances begin to increase by this morning, and the severe weather threat increases into the afternoon. All of this weather is associated with a rather potent shortwave trough moving through the Plains, with a weak low pressure and surface boundary extending across the Slight risk area. This boundary will move north today as a warm front, which will help set the stage for more widespread severe weather tomorrow, when the boundary reverses course as a cold front. The main weather story in all of this today into tonight will be the heavy rain, as the Moderate ERO has been expanded into NW LA to account for this heaviest activity. Widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall are possible through Monday night, with pockets of 6+ inches certainly not out of the question. In turn, the day shift flood watch has been expanded in size, and extended in time as well to account for additional rainfall through Tuesday morning. The first round of rainfall will exit the region by tonight, before PoP coverage increases again by Monday afternoon. This round of heavy rain will be associated with the cold front moving SE, which will also coincide with the severe weather chances on Monday. Very little has changed in the thinking with this severe weather, as large hail and damaging winds remain the main threats. A very narrow window exists during first initiation in which an isolated tornado will be possible as well. However, that threat is almost tertiary in nature given the heavy rainfall. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Rain chances will begin to fade by Tuesday morning, with a very short "dry period" anticipated through Wednesday night. However, the next trough will begin moving into the Midwest by Thursday morning. This will be our next round of heavy rain and potential severe weather, with another 2-4 inches of rainfall possible in our southern zones. With that being said, this heavy rainfall axis may shift south (or north) over the next few days, which would greatly change the need for another flood watch based on rainfall here in the short-term. The severe weather threat continues to look uncertain based on airmass recovery between heavy rainfall, but there is still plenty of time for that to change into the weekend as well. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR flight conditions will prevail initially but isolated to scattered showers will move into the area from the west early in the period and gradually increase in coverage. More robust convection is expected to move into East Texas starting around 10/13z before spreading eastward across the rest of the region. Thunderstorms, which could be strong at times, will likely prevail at most sites through the remainder of the period. Flight conditions will also gradually deteriorate. MVFR/IFR conditions are generally expected once the convection arrives. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 67 84 66 / 90 80 40 20 MLU 77 65 85 66 / 60 90 60 40 DEQ 76 62 80 60 / 70 60 50 10 TXK 76 65 82 64 / 80 80 50 10 ELD 77 62 79 63 / 60 90 50 20 TYR 73 67 85 64 / 90 70 20 10 GGG 73 66 85 64 / 90 80 30 10 LFK 77 68 86 64 / 90 70 40 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning for LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018. OK...None. TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning for TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...09