Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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899 FXUS64 KSJT 090736 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 236 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Low level moisture will quickly increase across the area through the early morning hours. Several CAMs indicate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau shortly after daybreak, with this activity tracking east through the morning hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, but if storms do develop, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Slight chance PoPs were kept for this time frame to account for the possibility. A cold front is forecast to track south across the area today. Ahead of the front, hot temperatures are forecast, with highs in the 90s. Behind the front, gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures are expected. Highs across the northern Big Country will be in the 70s, with highs across the southern Big Country in the low to mid 80s. Farther south, highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s, although a few locations could top out in the upper 90s. These highs, especially across central portions of the forecast area, might be a bit too high, if the front is slightly faster than currently forecast. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, east of the dryline and south of the cold front. The extent of coverage this afternoon will be dependent on how much, if any, convection develops across the region this morning. At this point, have kept PoPs in the slight chance to low end chance category, mainly confined to our eastern counties. Any storms that develop will likely become severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards, although a tornado is also possible. Most of the storms should be east of the area by this evening. Expect overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Cooler temperatures in store Friday into the weekend with an unsettled pattern. On Friday an upper low will be over southern Nevada. This low will move slowly east over the Four Corners area Saturday and Saturday night. With a subtropical jet extending from the eastern Pacific/Baja region across Texas into the Gulf Coast states, an embedded disturbance or two will will track over the area during the first half of the weekend. With a northeast breeze and increase in cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler area wide Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will increase across our area Saturday and Saturday night. Considerable cloud cover and the prospects for rain Saturday will limit highs to the 70s. The aforementioned upper low is progged to move east into western Kansas by early Sunday night with a trough extending to its south. Medium range models indicate that the low and trough will make slow eastward progress on Monday. The approach of the upper low and trough will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance on Monday. With winds across our area shifting to the southeast and south, temperatures Sunday will be warmer but still below normal in the Concho Valley and southern parts of our area. May have a Pacific front move east across much if not all of our area on Monday. Based on indications from the 12Z medium range models, rain chances should drop off Monday night and Tuesday, as the upper trough axis shifts east of our area. A warming trend is indicated Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday, and upper 80s to mid 90s Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Stratus is forecast to develop at the southern 3 sites after 10Z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near KSJT after 12Z, then move east through the morning hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, so for now have introduced a mention of VCSH at KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT. Otherwise, expect a return of VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Expect gusty west winds of 10 to 12 knots today, becoming north at 12 to 16 knots behind a cold front that will move through the area this afternoon and into the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 60 78 59 / 20 10 10 10 San Angelo 95 61 82 61 / 10 10 20 20 Junction 97 64 84 62 / 20 10 20 20 Brownwood 87 60 78 59 / 30 20 10 10 Sweetwater 82 58 77 59 / 10 10 10 10 Ozona 95 63 80 62 / 20 10 30 20 Brady 90 63 78 61 / 30 10 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...Daniels