Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 230843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
443 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High pressure centered over Ontario Province will maintain chilly
and mainly dry weather through the weekend, with just a few
scattered light snow showers possible southeast and east of Lake
Ontario today as a weak disturbance passes through aloft.
Temperatures will then finally climb back to more normal levels
early next week as persistent deep troughing over the Northeast
moves off the east coast.


A broad upper level trough persists over the eastern Great Lakes
this morning. An embedded shortwave trough will move across the
region today. High pressure over northern Manitoba and Ontario
provinces will continue to bring fairly quiet weather to the region
today and tonight.

A dry airmass has kept the eastern Great Lakes mostly clear
overnight. A shortwave trough over Georgian Bay will move south
across the region this morning. The combination of slightly colder
temperatures aloft and continued northwesterly upslope flow will
increase cloud cover and scattered light snow showers are possible
especially southeast of Lake Erie and Ontario today. Northwesterly
flow will keep temperatures below normal with high temperatures
reaching the low to mid 30s and upper 20s across higher elevations.

Cold air advection is expected behind the exiting shortwave trough
tonight and into Saturday. The dry airmass will continue and snow
showers will taper off. Northwesterly upslope flow will continue and
low clouds will likely stick around across higher elevations.
Low temperatures will reach the low to mid 20s and teens at
higher elevations.


An upper level trough will remain across the Northeast through the
weekend, with surface high pressure building into the region. A cool
northerly flow, along with some lingering low level moisture will
result in some clouds south of Lake Ontario Saturday and possibly
some flurries across the North country. This also will result in
well below normal temperatures for Saturday and Saturday night.
Highs will only be in the lower to mid 30s with lows Saturday night
ranging from the teens to lower 20s.

High pressure across southern Quebec will ridge into our region
Sunday and Sunday night. This will result in dry weather with quite
a bit of sunshine for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will
be a bit warmer, but will still remain below normal through the
end of the weekend.


The work week will start with full sunshine as high pressure at both
the surface and aloft is found over the eastern Great Lakes region.
Strong subsidence will bring a prolonged period of clear skies
Monday into Tuesday.

Through the day Tuesday we will see mid and high level clouds build
across the region as moisture increases behind the surface high
pressure. From a west coast trough two shortwaves will cross the
Plains and head eastward next week, with timing and placement of
these shortwaves still in question. There will be a chance for
mainly rain showers Tuesday night through Thursday as these
shortwaves and corresponding surface reflected waves approach.

With the trough of cooler air likely to remain to our west through
the period...surface temperatures starting cool Monday morning will
climb to near to above normal Tuesday through Thursday. This will
place highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Winds
will likely be light Tuesday, but by Wednesday and Thursday areas
immediately east and northeast of the Great Lakes will likely be
cooler vs. inland areas owing to wind coming over the cold lake


Northwesterly flow continues today. Low clouds will continue
southeast of Lake Erie and KJHW is on the border of VFR/MVFR this
morning. VFR conditions continue elsewhere. A disturbance will move
across the terminals today. Scattered snow showers are possible
however coverage will be widely scattered and only localized MVFR
conditions are expected. Low clouds will likely be confined to the
higher elevations including KJHW tonight. Cigs may drop to low MVFR
by Saturday morning.


Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.


Northwesterly winds will continue on the waters today and tonight.
Winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory levels through





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