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000
FXPQ50 PGUM 160752
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
552 PM ChST Tue Apr 16 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
ASCAT wind analysis and satellite loops show a trade-wind trough has
been very slowly moving westward across our forecast zones today.
There has been patchy clouds and just a few sprinkles, but fair and
dry weather is arriving from the east. Surface winds are gentle to
moderate across the area and model guidance indicates combined seas
of 5 to 7 feet and perhaps up to 8 feet toward the northeast marine
areas.

&&

.Discussion...
Marianas weather will continue seasonably pleasant thru this week.
The weak trade-wind trough and spotty showers currently over the area
should continue moving west and away so that dry conditions will
prevail. Models indicate there could be a few showers later in the
week as a slight increase of atmospheric moisture moves our way from
the southeast.

&&

.Marine...
Models indicate gentle to moderate trade winds and combined seas of
5 to 8 feet thru this week. The primary swell is from the east but
there will also be a small north to northeast swell at times. There
will be a moderate risk of rip currents along north and east facing
reefs the next few days.

&&

.Fire weather...
The KDBI has climbed to 701, which puts us into the EXTREME range.
No wetting rains are expected for the next several days, and the
atmosphere will be relatively dry, with mainly gentle to moderate
surface winds. The main caveat is that Locally gusty winds are likely
in the southern mountains during the afternoon hours. Fire weather
conditions will still need to be monitored this week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A weak band of convergence extends westward from the Date Line to end
near Chuuk. The convergence is seen over a broad area from around 4N
to near 9N. This convergence zone is weaker than it was yesterday and
models indicate the strength of this feature will likely fluctuate
over the next few days. Currently, only isolated showers are seen on
satellite for Majuro, Kosrae and Pohnpei. Showers are expected to
remain isolated over Majuro through Wednesday afternoon and through
Wednesday night at Kosrae. Scattered showers look to develop through
the evening over Pohnpei as a weak trough approaches from near Kosrae
and interacts with the weak band of convergence. Scattered showers
are seen over Chuuk, associated with another weak trough moving
through the state. Later in the week, the convergence looks to become
more organized, resulting in increased convection. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms become possible for Majuro and Kosrae
Wednesday night into Thursday as a series of weak trade-wind troughs
begin to move through the region. For the weekend, the strongest
convergence and most robust troughs look to bring POPs (Probability
of Precipitation) up into the likely category. Latest model guidance
shows the potential for rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches in a band
from 4N to 8N from Chuuk to beyond the Date Line.

Overall, seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to continue across the
region and could occasionally fall to between 4 and 6 feet at all
locations except Majuro, where seas look to remain between 6 and 8
feet. Gentle to moderate trade winds look to continue into the
weekend across the region as well, with occasional fresh winds
possible at Majuro.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
A weak circulation remains south of Palau along a weak Near-
Equatorial Trough (NET) with a band of convergence seen to the
north of these features. There are also a couple of weak trade-wind
troughs moving through, with the first of these troughs clipping Yap
Proper. This trough will maintain scattered showers over Yap Proper
through tonight. For Palau, the trough looks to bring scattered
showers to the islands later this evening. By Wednesday morning,
showers look to clear from Yap, while scattered showers remain over
Palau through the next several days. This is due to the approaching
trade troughs remaining south of Yap with most of the energy seen
moving through south of Palau, but close enough to maintain POPs in
the 30 to 40 percent range. Over the weekend, Yap looks to get a bit
more shower coverage as approaching troughs move a little closer to
the island.

Benign marine conditions are expected to continue, with combined
seas remaining at or below 6 feet along with gentle to moderate
trade winds. The approaching long-period northeast swell is expected
to increase surf along north and east facing reefs of both Yap and
Palau, though surf is not expected to reach hazardous levels.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Simpson
Micronesia: Kleeschulte