012
FXUS64 KHUN 111928
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A very pleasant afternoon across the Tennessee Valley as high
pressure keeps dry and mild conditions over the region. Low
pressure to our northeast will continue to track toward the
northern Atlantic Coast tonight, and a weak cold front will make
its way into the area. Given limited moisture and the lack of any
sufficient forcing, will keep a dry forecast with mostly clear sky
conditions overnight. This will be ideal for those hoping to
catch a glimpse of the northern lights, with maybe a few more
clouds over the area than we saw last night. Overnight lows will
be on the cooler side, dropping into the lower 50s to upper 40s in
the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Will maintain a dry forecast through Sunday as upper ridging
builds in from our west and low pressure centers over central KS.
This will result in a warmer day on Mother`s Day with afternoon
highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s with increasing clouds late in
the afternoon and light and variable winds. Will remain dry
through most of the night Sunday, but low rain chances will
increase from SW to NE during the early morning hours as synoptic
lift and better moisture arrive in the area. Rain chances will be
maximized Monday afternoon and overnight as a cold front nears and
pushes through the area, and for now it looks like the best
chances for strong to severe storms will miss our area to the
southwest. With that being said, still expect to see periods of
heavy rain and thunderstorms so this system bears watching. Clouds
and heavy rain will keep temperatures lower on Monday, with highs
limited to the lower 70s with little change in temps overnight,
only falling to the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will continue as we go into the
week. An upper level area of low pressure now over the southern
Great Basin will move eastward over the next few days, and should
reach the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Tue. Upper troughing
accompanying this system will place the area under a SW-NE upper
flow. A surface low with this system and a cold front nearing from
the west will continue a trend of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley. Overall storm
strength continues to look "general" with a usual potential for
gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. The
aformentioned cold front should move across the area Tue night
with shower activity ending from west to east. The parent low
however will move slower to the east. Its location over the Ohio
Valley, and residual moisture over our eastern areas will keep
lower end rain chances in on Wed, mainly east of I-65 and over our
more NE areas.

A brief break in shower activity is forecast Wed night as the
first low finally exits more to the north and east. More showers
and storm chances return on Thu as yet another system nears from
the west. Output from the deterministic models was becoming more
uncertain (comparing the precip fields with one another), so
trended more with the blends. They were suggesting the best rain
chances Thu night into Fri. This system looked similar overall
strength wise with the earlier system, with mainly non-severe
storms anticipated.

High temperatures on Tue and Wed should range in the upper 70s. A
bit warmer on Thu with highs in the lower 80s, and around 80 Fri.
Lows Tue night should range in the lower 60s, and a bit cooler
Wed night in the upper 50s, then back into the lower 60s Thu
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both
terminals. Expect mostly clear skies with breezy WNW winds this
afternoon, with gusts as high as 20kts possible.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25