972
FXHW01 KWNH 030740
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 00Z Fri Oct 11 2024

Latest guidance is consistent in showing a period of lighter
trades Friday through the weekend as fronts weaken high pressure
to the north and upper troughing develops overhead.  This may
allow for sea/land breezes to affect the distribution of rainfall
during Friday-Sunday.  Trades should rebound to moderate speeds
Monday onward with a return of windward shower focus as high
pressure to the north strengthens.  Meanwhile, the improved
clustering aloft seen 24 hours ago for the upper trough developing
over the area by the weekend has held up fairly well into today`s
runs with only modest refinements.  Now consensus shows a better
defined compact upper low settling over or barely north of the
main islands during at least Sunday-Monday.  Most solutions show
the upper low ejecting northeastward thereafter but likely with a
lingering weak trough/shear axis over the area at least into
midweek. 00Z machine learning models show a similar evolution.
The destabilizing influence of the upper low will likely support
some heavier showers, especially during the weekend into early
next week.

Rausch

$$