Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 190829
SPC AC 190828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


A few strong storms are possible from north Texas to the Arklatex
Thursday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move eastward across the Four Corners region on
Thursday, with strong winds aloft spreading into the Plains. At the
surface, a cold front will progress south across OK and into
northwest TX during the afternoon, and will continue southward into
east-central TX by Friday morning.

Large-scale ascent will increase Thursday night as the low-amplitude
midlevel trough produces height falls over OK and TX, with lift
focused along the cold front. Given the orientation of the front,
much of the convection will develop over the cool air. In addition,
much of the activity that develops along the front may be undercut,
becoming elevated.

A few storms cannot be ruled out after 00Z along the front over
north TX and persisting near the boundary with access to the warm
sector. However, forecast soundings yield uncertainty regarding
boundary layer stability. In addition, while large SRH is forecast
over eastern TX overnight, this will be in a region where
surface-based instability will be near zero. While isolated severe
storms capable of gusty winds, or even a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out, will defer possible categorical upgrades to later updates
due to uncertainties regarding both frontal position and

..Jewell.. 11/19/2019

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