865
FXUS61 KBTV 090223
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon. Some small hail and gusty winds are
possible within thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will come
to an end this evening, and the remainder of the night will be
damp and cloudy with some drizzle. The rest of the week into
early next week will see at least chances for showers continue
each day as we enter into a wet and unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1009 PM EDT Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms have
moved out of the area and weakened. Deep low level moisture now
in place with cold air advection will lead to some low ceilings
and drizzle. Temperatures will remain pretty mild overnight,
lows drop into the 40s.

Previous discussion...A cold front will move south through the
area tonight, though impacts will be restricted to just some low
clouds and drizzle. Forecast soundings suggest a layer of low-
level moisture will become trapped under a mid-level inversion,
resulting in a dreary night with low stratus, mist, and drizzle.
Additional shortwave energy moving through Thursday will keep
low clouds around and have maintained a few light showers in the
forecast. Some areas may see low clouds erode during the
afternoon, leading to a few peaks of sunshine, but overall
looking at predominantly mostly cloudy skies. Very little change
in the overall pattern going into Thursday night, so will again
expect lowering stratus clouds through the night especially in
higher terrain. Low temperatures will be in the 40s both tonight
and Thursday night, and high temperatures Thursday will be in
the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...The overall trend noted by the
previous discussion towards drier conditions for Friday
continued with the 12Z NWP guidance with shortwave energy
dropping south of the region from the Ohio Valley through the
Mid-Atlantic states. The northeast will remain under a broad
upper level trough though so some showers can`t be ruled out,
especially south. Dry conditions generally rule Friday night in
between shortwave troughs, but chances for showers return on
Saturday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes will shift
the flow to southwesterly across the region. The highest chances
for showers will be across northern New York, with PoPs lower
across Vermont. Temperatures will run near normal through the
period with highs slightly cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s, and
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...More unsettled conditions look to
return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned
upper trough shifts offshore and potentially deepens and closes
off. The GFS is the most aggressive solution while the ECMWF and
GDPS are lesser so, offering lower chances for precipitation.
Being it`s Mothers Day we`ll offer a little hope for drier
weather and lean towards consensus and blended guidance with
PoPs 40-50% across the region through Monday. Heading into mid-
week conditions continue to remain unsettled as the upper flow
trends northwesterly with several shortwave passages possible.
Not looking at any impactful rain or thunderstorms, but the
chance for showers exists each day.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Isolated to scattered showers with some
embedded thunderstorms are weakening and moving out of our
region. With regards to ceiling heights, expect a general
downward/deteriorating trend as we head into the overnight
hours. Many sites will see MVFR ceilings become more predominant
into the evening. Overnight, forecasting some IFR ceilings.
Could also have reduced visibilities due to patchy fog and
drizzle that will persist towards the morning hours. Winds will
trend to the NW overnight, diminishing to under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles