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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131637
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1237 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will build into the region from the Upper Midwest
through this afternoon. This ridge then moves eastward across
our region tonight before a cold front sweeps generally
southeastward through our region on Sunday through Sunday night.
Behind the front, another ridge builds from the Upper Great
Lakes and vicinity through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very minor changes planned for the afternoon forecast as high
pressure gradually builds east into the region. The western edge
of the cloud shield associated with the Quebec low pressure is
exiting far northeast Ohio and NW PA so sunny skies will
prevail across the entire CWA. High temperatures will warm to
near 50 in inland nw PA to the lower 60s in the I-75 corridor.

Previous discussion:
A trough at the surface and aloft will continue to exit as a
ridge at the surface and aloft builds into the region this
afternoon. Overcast holding late this morning across northwest
Pennsylvania while clear skies prevail across all of Ohio.
Clouds over northwest Pennsylvania will gradually this through
the afternoon and drier air and subsidence work further east.
Late afternoon highs should reach the 50s to lower 60s in
northern OH. NW PA will have late afternoon highs reach the
upper 40s to lower 50s since considerable clearing is expected
to arrive later and thus less daytime heating is expected.

Odds favor fair weather tonight as the ridge at the surface and
aloft crests E`ward through our CWA. Overnight lows should reach
the upper 30`s to lower 40`s in NW PA and the 40`s in northern
OH before readings moderate somewhat toward daybreak as low-level
WAA occurs on the backside of the ridge. A subtle shortwave
trough should overspread our CWA from the western Great Lakes
and vicinity on Sunday as the ridge exits generally E`ward.
Simultaneously, the shortwave trough`s attendant surface low
should move from near northern Lake Michigan toward central NY
and allow the trailing cold front to begin sweeping SE`ward
across our CWA Sunday afternoon. This front may reach roughly
the U.S. Route 30 corridor by nightfall. Intervals of sunshine,
daytime heating, and low-level WAA will allow afternoon highs to
reach the 70`s.

Odds favor fair weather through the early afternoon due, in
part, to an EML and attendant strong capping inversion aloft
residing over/near our CWA. However, mid-level cooling and
large-scale ascent tied to the shortwave trough should weaken
the capping inversion later in the day. Isolated to scattered
and organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the SE`ward-advancing cold front later Sunday afternoon
and into the early evening as the front encounters moderate to
strong effective bulk shear, non-excessive boundary layer CIN,
and moderate boundary layer CAPE courtesy of daytime heating,
surface dew points in the 50 to 55F range, and steep mid-level
lapse rates associated with the EML. Severe thunderstorms in
the form of multicells and supercells are possible. Damaging
convective wind gusts amidst DCAPE near 500 to 1000 J/kg and
damaging hail the size of quarters to golf balls courtesy of
steep mid-level lapse rates, hail growth zone MUCAPE of at
least 400 J/kg, and favorable melting levels near 10kft AGL are
expected to be the main severe convective weather hazards.
Unusually-high PWAT`s are expected within the warm sector and
will allow showers and storms to produce torrential rainfall.
Given soils are already very wet, localized flash flooding may
develop where multiple rounds of showers and storms manage to
occur. However, W`erly mean mid-level flow and the general SW-
to-NE orientation of the front should limit potential for
training convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will continue to dip southward across the local forecast
area Sunday night before eventually exiting early Monday morning.
High pressure quickly builds overhead from the north and will lead
to dry weather and clearing skies on Monday. Low pressure centered
over the Great Plains will lift a warm front northeastward during
the day Tuesday. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will
increase from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning and afternoon
as the front enters the region.

Slightly above normal temperatures expected on Monday with highs in
the low to mid 60s across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Warmer across Central and Northwest Ohio with highs on Monday in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday will be another warm day as the warm
front lifts northeastward and areawide high temperatures range
between the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows in the 40s Sunday
and Monday night rise into the mid 50s to low 60s by Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The center of the aforementioned low pressure system will likely
glide north and west of the local area across Wisconsin and Northern
Michigan during the day Wednesday. As the low tracks northeastward
it will drag a cold front east across the Lower Great Lakes region
Wednesday into Thursday. This front and its parent low will keep
precipitation chances in the forecast through the end of the long
term forecast period.

One last warm day on Wednesday with highs in the 70s areawide ahead
of the cold front. Highs will decrease each day through the end of
the week with 60s on Thursday and 50s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the Upper Midwest
through 06Z/Sun. Thereafter, the ridge exits as a trough at the
surface and aloft overspreads our area from the western Great
Lakes and vicinity. WNW to WSW winds around 10 to 20 knots
gusting up to 20 to 30 knots are expected through ~23Z/Sat.
Thereafter, regional winds back toward SW and ease to around 5
to 15 knots. VFR and fair weather are expected through the TAF
period. Lingering low clouds and associated ceilings near 4kft
AGL at/near KERI are expected to exit east by this early
afternoon. LLWS is expected to develop late this evening into
early Sunday morning as a WSWerly 925 mb jet of about 50 knots
develops and overspreads northern OH and NW PA from the west.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with showers and thunderstorms Sunday
morning through predawn hours of Monday morning and again on Tuesday
through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for nearshore
waters through this morning and afternoon. Strong northwesterly
winds 25-30 knots will gradually diminish through this afternoon
and evening as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the
lake. West-southwesterly winds 10-15 knots this evening under
high pressure gradually increase to 15-20 knots on Sunday as a
warm front lifts east across the lake. This warm front will be
followed by a cold front Sunday night and allow for winds 10- 15
knots to turn northerly Sunday night into Monday morning. Next
best chance for small craft advisories will come mid week as a
strong low pressure system enters the region from the Great
Plains Wednesday into Thursday and allow for southwesterly winds
to increase to 20-25 knots Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ145-
     146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Iverson