Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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603 FXUS64 KCRP 101139 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 639 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: Cold front to move across the region today Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this morning. It is expected to slowly drift south towards the coast this afternoon/evening where it is likely to stall over our southern CWA. Expecting a wind shift to the northeast ahead of the actual front with weak to moderate winds. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. PWAT`s from the latest sounding are reflecting values just below normal and have silent PoP`s in the forecast today. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains. A few mid-level disturbances from a low anchored over the Four Corners, will increase storm chances for Saturday with a low 15-25% chance across most of the region. Saturday has the coolest highs of the week ranging in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday Warming trend kicks in on Sunday. Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts daily. The long term opens up with a warm front lifting north across the region. PWATs will trend up south of the boundary as a ~20 knots LLJ ushers deep moisture inland. Meanwhile, an upper low across the Desert Southwest will begin to lift across the Southern Plains while sending another weak front our way. Several shortwaves look to eject out ahead of the low Sunday through Monday. This will help drive convection as we head into the work week. We currently have a low to moderate (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Our greatest chances will be confined to the Victoria Crossroads as the greatest forcing will pass north of the region. We begin to dry out Monday evening as weak ridging builds in from the west. Low end PoPs return by mid week as another disturbance nears the region. By the time Sunday gets here, our warming trend will be well underway. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s along the coast to near 100 across the Brush Country. Heat indices bounce back into the 100-109 range through the week leading to a moderate heat risk for much of South Texas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Not much change to the forecast. Currently have a mix of VFR out west to MVFR at VCT and IFR/LIFR at CRP/ALI. Expect these conditions to continue through the morning. VFR conditions to return by this afternoon. A cold front will move across the region today but not expecting much if any shower/storm activity with the best chances around COT/LRD this afternoon tapering off in the evening. Tonight expecting MVFR ceilings but that could drop to IFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Overall a weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected today in response to a frontal boundary. Flow is expected to persist through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There is a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night A weak to moderate southeasterly flow will resume Saturday night and continue through the work week. There is a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances return by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 75 85 75 / 0 0 10 20 Victoria 90 70 86 72 / 10 10 10 20 Laredo 97 75 90 76 / 10 20 20 30 Alice 93 73 86 74 / 10 10 20 20 Rockport 89 75 85 76 / 10 0 10 10 Cotulla 92 75 87 75 / 10 10 20 30 Kingsville 91 74 85 75 / 10 10 20 20 Navy Corpus 88 78 85 77 / 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...BF/80