651
FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels with background flux at or near M1.0.
Region 3664 (S19W34, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth
and produced two R3 (Strong) and eight R1 (Minor) events. The largest
events, an X2.2 flare 09/0913 UTC and an X1.1 at 09/1744 UTC, were
accompanied by Type-II and IV radio sweeps, and complex radio burst
signatures were observed across discrete frequencies. A halo CME
associated with the X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC from Region 3664 is
Earth-directed with arrival likely on 11 May. Another halo CME,
associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC, is visible in LASCO
imagery but there is not enough data available for analysis at the time
of this writing.

At present, four halo CMEs (associated with flare activity from Region
3664 over 08-09 May) and a CME associated with a filament eruption (from
08 May) are expected to arrive beginning late on 10 May with the bulk of
geomagnetic impacts predicted on 11 May.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels over
10-12 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and
X-class flares (R3/Strong) likely, due to the flare potential of Region
3664.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced after
09/0600 UTC, following strong flare activity from Region 3664, but
remained below 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal
to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1
(Minor) storm levels over 10-12 May due to the location and flare
potential of Region 3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 10-12 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout much of the period
with a minor perturbation observed in the magnetic field after 09/1730
UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial readings near 450 km/s to
between 400-425 km/, total field strength ranged 1-7 nT, and the Bz
component varied +3/-5 nT. The phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
A weakly enhanced solar wind environment associated with CME activity is
expected through most of 10 May. A stronger disturbance is expected in
the early hours of 11 May through much of 12 May due to the anticipated
arrival of a series of halo CMEs associated with activity from Region
3664 over 08-09 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 10
May with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from 08-09
May). The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on 11
May with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming
expected, and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely. Periods of
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 12 May due to an enhanced
solar wind environment following the passage of the 08-09 May CMEs.