Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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768 FXUS65 KFGZ 111619 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 919 AM MST Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures are expected today with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday, with slight chances for a few showers and storms each afternoon through Thursday. Anticipate typical afternoon breezes through the period. && .UPDATE...Only a few minor changes to the forecast package. Introduced a bit higher chance of precipitation east of Flagstaff where advection will likely push any stronger showers towards Winslow. Also, introduced a slight chance of thunder in and around the Flagstaff area starting around 11 AM MST as the air mass looks unstable enough for such activity. Otherwise, the forecast remains the same. && .PREV DISCUSSION /538 AM MST/...The upper low is centered over NW Arizona early this morning, with clouds and a few light showers over northwest Coconino County. This low will slide eastward through the day, reaching 4 corners by sunset and then ejecting east into the Plains states by Sunday. Instability associated with daytime heating will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening with the highest coverage along and north of I-40. This will be high-based activity as low levels remain dry. So the main threats will be a few lightning strikes and wind gusts 30-40 mph. Shower chances dwindle by mid evening. Sunday and Monday - brief ridging over the state will lead to warmer daytime temperatures, finally reaching above normal after a cool stretch over the past week. Warmer temperatures aloft will diminish afternoon instability, but enough mid level moisture remains to keep a slight chance (10-20%) of a shower or storm both days along the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns northward. Daytime west to northwest wind 10-20 mph. Tuesday through Thursday - a weak low from off the Pacific is forecast to drift east over the state, as another trough dives southeast through the Rocky Mountain states. Slight cooling aloft and continued mid level moisture availability will lead to a 10-30% chance of light showers and a few thunderstorms each day, with the better chances on Wednesday. Thursday`s forecast is more uncertain as there are differences in the guidance regarding how fast the trough moves east of the state. Temperatures will remain near normal. Dry weather and a warming trend are favored for Friday. && .AVIATION...Saturday 11/12Z through Sunday 12/12Z...Mostly VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible through 02Z Sunday. Some FU producing VIS from 2-4SM possible near the KSEZ and KFLG. Sfc winds light and variable overnight, with some NE drainage winds just SW of higher terrain and at terminal KSEZ. Otherwise, SW-W5-15g20kts AFT 18Z Saturday through 02Z Sunday. OUTLOOK...Sunday 12/12Z through Tuesday 14/12Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions. ISOLD afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA possible, mainly north of a KFLG-KRQE line. Areas VIS 2-4SM with FU near prescribed burns. Sfc winds light and variable in the overnight and early morning hours, westerly 10-15g20kts each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...An area of low pressure moving over northern Arizona will bring a chance (20-50%) for afternoon showers and high-based thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim northward, especially today. Little precipitation is expected (less than 0.10"), however gusty outflow winds of up to 40 mph are possible. Outside of showers, expect west to northwest winds 10 to 25 mph. Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will warm to above average. A low chance (10-30%) for mountain showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon through the week. Very little precipitation is expected. Generally west winds of 10 to 20 mph are forecast through the week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/JJ AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff