221
FXUS63 KGLD 112238
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Run of the mill showers/storms this afternoon into tonight,
  mainly south of Interstate 70.

- Numerous showers and storms are expected on Sunday, beginning
  during the early afternoon and ending from west to east
  Sunday night and Monday morning. A few severe storms capable
  of producing quarter sized hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph
  are possible, mainly in northwest Kansas between 2-8 PM MDT
  Sunday.

- Average rainfall amounts today through Monday near 0.50" to
  1.25", highest south of a line from Norton to Sharon Springs.

- Unsettled pattern will continue to support a chances for
  showers/storms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

This afternoon, a 500 mb low pressure system over the western
Rockies is starting to influence the CWA and showers are moving
in from the southwest. These showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue into the night with spotty coverage. The
threat for severe weather is very low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks
to be limited to around 300-800 J/KG and effective shear is
about 15-20 kts or less. The SPC has placed the extreme
southwestern portion of the CWA is in a marginal ERO, however
there is less than 5% confidence that flooding will occur today.

Tomorrow will have more widespread precipitation, stronger
storms, although no severe weather parameters look very
impressive. An 850 mb lee low is expected to form in the very
early morning hours Sunday and move across the CWA in the mid-
day as the 500 mb low moves over Colorado to the east. Supplied
with a 20-35 kts LLJ that is expected to start up around 3-6Z
tonight, we will have plenty of moisture to work with throughout
the day Sunday. This which does cause some concern for flooding
potential Sunday when we have another marginal ERO in the far
southeastern CWA. However, due to little rainfall over the
previous week, soundings show upshear speeds around 20-25 kts (a
little fast for flooding), and the types of storm formation
expected, there is only about 5-10% confidence flooding would
occur. PWATS are near 1 inch and there is an fairly elevated
freezing level which adds to the confidence, but does not make
it certain. CAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD
shear around 25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible
(~5-10% chance). If severe weather were to occur, it would
likely be winds near 60 MPH and a few isolated 1" hailstones.

The HRRR has been doing a pretty good job with today`s showers,
so timing will be based on the 12Z and 18Z HRRR. The surface
low looks to move into the western CWA around 14Z and slowly
move to the east. The will cause wrap-around moisture to be
pulled in and around 18Z a line of showers and storms form along
the northern CWA. This line will move to the south- southeast
and as it does, additional bands of showers and storms look to
form, so the rain may come in waves tomorrow. The entire system
will be moving to the east and the northerly winds push the
storms to the south. Precipitation looks to begin tapering off
around 9Z Monday, but could linger into mid-day Monday.

Sunday will be cooler than today due to mostly cloudy skies and
a cold front moving through in the morning/mid-day, highs will
be in the 60s. Tonight will see the LLJ moving warm, moist air
into the region. The western CWA will remain in the mid 40s but
the eastern CWA looks to stay in the mid 50s. Sunday night will
be slightly cooler behind the cold front, likely down into the
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

The extended forecast begins with split flow across the eastern
two thirds of the nation. The northern split has an upper
trough extending west to east from Minnesota to New England and
a ridge over the Dakotas and Big Sky Country (Montana). The
southern split has a trough over the Kansas/Oklahoma border, a
ridge over the Wyoming Big Horns, and northerly flow over the
Tri-State area. A closed 500mb low will be centered over central
Kansas. Starting out in the morning, chances for rain will
persist, with 10-20 percent chances for areas along and west of
Hwy 27. Areas east of the highway will have a 20-50 percent
chance of rain. This will be due to wrap around on the back side
of the low. Winds may be a tad breezy through the afternoon as
the system moves off to the east. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all
show the low becoming an open wave as it moves out of the
region. For the afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains possible. Severe weather is not currently anticipated
with any storms that develop.

The area comes under westerly flow Tuesday as a weak upper
ridge moves over the area. Expect dry conditions for the first
part of the day, with a few showers and thunderstorms moving in
during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be
above normal, reaching the 80s in many areas.

Expect a shift in the pattern Wednesday through the end of the
forecast period as a slow moving, upper trough moves across the
region Wednesday through Friday. There will be a cool down
coming with temperatures returning to the 70s on Wednesday and
Thursday. Periodic shower and thunderstorms will be possible
between Wednesday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Sub-VFR conditions associated with episodic showers/storms
and/or low ceilings are anticipated this evening, overnight and
throughout the day on Sunday. S to SW winds at 10-15 knots this
afternoon will become light/variable overnight.. as a weak low
pressure system in CO progresses eastward over western KS. Light
and variable winds will prevail through mid to late Sunday
afternoon, shifting to the N or NNE at 15-20 knots near the end
of the TAF period (~00Z Monday).. as the aforementioned low
pressure system progresses eastward into central Kansas. Gusty/
erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...Vincent