000
FXUS63 KICT 260833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and storms expected this morning, severe weather not
  expected

* Storms possible across the Flint Hills this afternoon, possibly
  severe

* Severe storms, possibly significant, likely midday Saturday
  into Saturday night

* Active weather pattern through much of next week; multiple
  chances for rainfall

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As of 3 AM Friday morning, a longwave, midlevel trough was
positioned across western CONUS. The first in a series of shortwave
tough axis` was progressing through the central and southern High
Plains. A well-defined surface warm front extends from near Tulsa,
OK to just south of Ponca City, OK to just south of Pratt, KS and
northwestward from there to the surface low in east-central CO.
Persistent, strong low-level WAA has kept overcast conditions with
occasional drizzle north of the warm front. As the midlevel
shortwave trough ejects northeastward, the warm front will retreat
northward. In conjunction with the northward retreating warm front,
the dryline, currently just east of the CO stateline, will advance
eastward through the remainder of the night into this afternoon.
As the dryline progresses into central KS after 4 AM, better
midlevel ascent, from the right entrance region of the 500 mb
jet, will result in more-widespread thunderstorm development.
It will be a close-call whether storm inflow can originate
within the boundary layer. Point-and-click RAP soundings suggest
the most likely scenario is storms will remain just elevated,
constraining any potential severe weather hazards to large hail
up to quarter size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Should an
updraft ingest surface- based-parcels with subsequent supercell
structures, a tornado would become increasingly possible. These
trends will need to be monitored closely through sunrise.

Transitioning into the afternoon hours today, the aforementioned
dryline will continue its march eastward, taking position across
the Flint Hills by mid-afternoon. The environment immediately
ahead of the dryline will be comprised of 1500-2500 MLCAPE with
50-60 kts of effective shear. Hodographs structures ahead of the
dryline have sufficient veering within the lowest 2 km or so
but become unidirectional, if not subtle backing, from 2-6 km.
While, a dominate right-moving supercell is possible, the subtle
backing above 2 km may lead to storm splits. All of that to
say, large hail up to baseball size and a tornado or two are
possible with the strongest storms. Again, this threat extends
east of a line from Emporia to Eureka to Sedan. Any storm will
rapidly move northeast and clear the area by 7 PM.

Behind the previously mentioned dryline, low-level moisture is
greatly scoured with surface dew points falling into the 30s.
As the evening/night progresses the near-surface moisture will
rapidly retreat westward with dew points returning into the low
to mid 60s. The deep, low-level moisture will remain across
central TX through midnight tonight/Saturday morning. This
deeper moisture will begin its trek northward as a surface low
deepens across southeast CO. Latest short range deterministic
and ensemble guidance suggests showers/storms will develop along
the nose of this moisture plume. These will rapidly spread
north and northeast from north TX/southwest OK. The evolution
and scope of these showers/storms will play a pivotal role in
afternoon storms with a couple of scenarios that may play out.

SCENARIO 1: These showers and storms develop across north
TX/southwest OK and gradually move north through the morning/early
afternoon. As the move northward, they will move in an increasingly
buoyant environment with upwards of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Long,
veering hodographs would support a transition to a cluster of
thunderstorms, some with supercell structures. Any sustained
supercell structure would have the potential to produce very large
hail (baseball size or larger) and tornadoes. Then eyes would turn
westward to the dryline for any boundary layer recovery that may
occur for later in the afternoon. Any dryline storms that develop
along the dryline from roughly Hays to Greensburg would have the
potential for all hazards including large hail up to baseball size
and tornadoes.

SCENARIO 2: These showers/storms develop across north TX/southwest
OK. They EXPAND in coverage as they progress northeastward and
drastically disrupt the downstream environment and reducing the
likelihood for these to become surface based. This would reduce
the potential for severe storms. Like in scenario 1, eyes would
turn westward to the dryline for any boundary layer recovery
that may occur for later in the afternoon. Again, any storm that
develops along the dryline from roughly Hays to Greensburg
would have the potential for all hazards including large hail up
to baseball size and tornadoes.

The million dollar question is which scenario is more likely. At
this point, it seems a near guarantee that showers/storms
develop across north TX/southwest OK and gradually move
northeastward. An overall lack of strong large scale forcing for
ascent, shouldn`t foster an expansive zone of showers/storms.
Therefore, I don`t expect a significant modification of the
downstream environment into portions of central, south-central,
and southeast KS. As such, scenario 1 seems the most plausible
with open warm sector severe storms during the afternoon. Then a
second round of severe storms developing along the dryline as
the main midlevel shortwave ejects into the Plains towards 7pm.

Transitioning into Saturday night/Sunday morning, large scale ascent
will increase leading to additional thunderstorm development across
central/south-central KS. Thunderstorm hazards should transition to
primarily a damaging wind threat. A few lapse rate driven
showers/storms are possible into Sunday as the midlevel low pivots
across NE/SD. The midlevel pattern looks to remain active into next
week with zonal flow persisting. Several shortwave trough axis` are
progged to eject across the Plains with multiple rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Scattered convection will be most prevalent across the Flint
Hills and southeast Kansas overnight as a warm front lifts north
across the area. IFR/LIFR cigs should improve to mainly MVFR
with the passage of the front toward sunrise. VFR conditions
will develop across most of the area by late morning with strong
and gusty south to southwest winds during the daylight hours.
Isolated widely scattered strong to severe convection is
possible again Friday afternoon across southeast Kansas.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today: Very high grassland fire danger is expected this afternoon
as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...BMB/JC