Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222031
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Tonight-Wednesday:
Little in way of weather tonight as light south flow continues.
Majority of models indicate precipitation chances generally east
of I-35 tomorrow, mainly associated with influx of slightly richer
low level moisture. Anticipate some precipitation will probably
develop, most likely in the afternoon due to the additional boost
from heating, but suspect coverage may be spotty.

Thursday-Friday Night:
Small precipitation chances during the day Thursday. With
GFS/ECMWF suggesting a decent shortwave trough moving through flow
Thursday night, storms on periphery of cap look likely. GFS moves
remnant MCS across the area 0600 UTC-1200 UTC Friday. This is
likely due to its stronger 850MB flow and smaller cap compared to
the ECMWF, which keeps remnants well northeast of the area.
Temperatures remain a bit above normal. Weak warm air advection
and potential surface boundary lead both GFS/ECMWF to generate
storms Friday night as well. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Summertime pattern with ridge aloft building slowly over the
region. With low level moisture lingering, may see diurnal stray
storms, but predictability is low. Unfortunately these stray
convective QPF bullseyes impact initialization grids so
precipitation forecasts are likely a bit optimistic on rain
chances. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Surface ridge currently extends through the Upper/Mid Mississippi
Valley with lee troughing strengthening over eastern CO. Low level
moisture will continue to increase, especially across southeast
KS. May see some pockets of fog early Wed morning for the Flint
Hills and east, but any fog should be very short-lived like it was
this morning. For now will just run with some 5sm at KCNU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  20
Hutchinson      65  88  66  89 /   0   0  10  20
Newton          64  86  66  88 /   0  10  10  20
ElDorado        65  84  66  86 /   0  20  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   65  85  66  87 /   0  30  10  20
Russell         66  89  66  90 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      66  88  65  89 /   0   0  10  20
Salina          66  89  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       65  88  66  89 /   0   0  10  20
Coffeyville     66  85  66  86 /   0  40  10  30
Chanute         64  85  66  86 /   0  30  10  30
Iola            65  85  66  85 /   0  30  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    65  85  66  86 /   0  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL



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