806
FXUS62 KJAX 071901
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mostly dry conditions with only an isolated shower offshore near
midday. The inland push of the sea breeze will be limited today
as high pressure builds into the region, chances of isolated
showers and storms will mainly be confined along the I-95
corridor in NE FL. Main threat concerns for any isolated t`storm
would be occasional to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief
heavy rainfall. By early evening, any shower/storm activity should
clear out leading to skies becoming mostly clear across the area.
Patchy fog will be possible along the western edges of our area
past midnight and clear out by sunrise. Overnight lows are
expected to dip to the mid 60s over inland areas and in the low
70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The overall pattern Wed and Thu shows an upper level ridge across
most of the forecast area and into the Gulf of Mexico, with some
mid level troughing moving in Thursday afternoon, with the upper
level ridge axis beginning to shift east of the area Thursday
night. At the sfc, high pressure ridge is over the central FL
peninsula and will move a bit southward by Thu to southern FL, as
a cold front marches east to southeast from the TN and MS valley
to Appalachians. The airmass will remain dry and hot for Wed and
partly on Thu with 850 mb temps rising to about 19C and
thicknesses that support mid 90s over the eastern zones. Hottest
temps look to be over the eastern zones as the southwest winds,
breezy at times, near 15 mph gusting to 25 mph, push the hot air
all the way to the coast. In other words, the east coast sea
breeze is going to be hard pressed to move inland, especially on
Thursday. Heat indices likely to top out around 100-103 or so.
Record highs are possible. Not heat advisory criteria but if not
used to heat since it`s a bit early in the year for it, it will be
sensitive to more vulnerable people or those working outdoors.

Models show a decent shot of some showers and storm coming in
from the west, mainly affecting southeast GA, Thursday afternoon
and night, with the ECMWF developing convection faster than the
GFS. GFS eventually brings in a batch of showers and potential
storms (MCS type feature) by early Friday morning. Latest trend in
the GFS is for somewhat better chances of precip Thu night compared
to prior runs. Latest forecast shows a slight uptick in chances
Thu night.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Cold frontal boundary will sag southward over the region Friday as
mid to upper level trough moves through the region. Uncertainty
on how things evolve early Friday and through the afternoon.
Current forecast shows showers and storms widespread over the
north half of the area and more scattered to numerous further
south. Latest model output suggests we may need to shift the
higher POPs further south into northeast FL but will wait on
further model agreement. The mid level trough moves east of the
area by Friday evening and helps to push the cold front through
our forecast area. Lingering precip will be possible Friday
evening but the front should end up over central FL late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Drier and cooler conditions Saturday
and Sunday with the front well to the south and weak high
pressure around 1016 mb over the TN valley. The southern stream
flow is progressive so we expect the sfc high pressure to work
northeast of the area Sunday night, and on Monday we see low
pressure developing along a frontal boundary over the western
Gulf of Mexico, and a warm front lifting up over parts of the
north Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we ramp up rain chances again Monday
from southwest to northeast, especially going into Monday night
as well. Temperatures generally trend downward and fall below
normal through at least Monday before warming up once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions continue across the area. Scattered showers with
isolated storms will be possible as the Atlantic sea breeze moves
inland, most activity will be limited to NE FL during the late
afternoon to early evening. Overnight, patchy fog along the
western edge of the area may see the chance for some fog for GNV
until sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure ridge will continue to shift across the area
through Thursday, with breezy south winds expected at times.
Offshore winds develop by Thursday as a cold front approaches the
region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary
conditions for small craft each night until the cold front arrives
by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a
frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible
in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL beaches today and Wednesday.
Moderate risk for SE GA beaches today with minor risk on
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  40
SSI  70  90  72  93 /   0  10   0  20
JAX  68  95  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  70  93  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  66  93  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
OCF  67  93  69  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$